Week 14: Bucs Prep for Saints Sweep After Ugly Win
It wasn’t pretty, but the Bucs snapped their three game losing streak with a win on home turf against the Arizona Cardinals.
With this win, the Bucs maintained their half game lead over the Carolina Panthers for the lead in the division, which they could turn into a full game lead this weekend while the Panthers have their bye week.
Baker Mayfield, who went down with a sprained shoulder in a brutal loss to the Rams on Sunday Night Football the week prior, ended up starting the game, extending his 46 game streak of starts, the longest of his career, still not having missed a single start in a Bucs uniform.
Bucky Irving finally returned from injury, and put up 81 yards on his 19 touches and added a rushing touchdown, his first of the year (his only other two touchdowns this year were receiving). He’ll look for another big game against a team he played very well against last year, averaging 18.5 touches for 94.5 yards and a touchdown across the two games last season.
It was also a return to the field for Chris Godwin Jr., and he looked significantly better this time around than he did when he tried to come back earlier this year. While he only ended up with three catches, they all went for 20+ yards, and he had a rather uncharacteristic drop in the endzone which forced the team to settle for a short field goal.
He’ll be looking for his first touchdown since last season’s injury against the first team he ever scored against, on New Years Eve, at home, on a game winning 39-yard bomb from Jameis Winston. He’s posted a career total of 75 catches for 997 yards and 9 touchdowns in 14 career games against the Saints, for an average of 5.4 catches for 71.2 yards and 0.6 touchdowns, but dropping two outlier games from very early in his career (combined 2 catches for 22 yards on 11 targets), his averages bump up to an impressive 6.1 catches for 81.3 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game against New Orleans in his career.
The lone passing touchdown on the day went to, you guessed it, All-Pro Left Tackle Tristan Wirfs, one of the first All-Pro offensive linemen to catch a touchdown in a season after they won the award. While he had 9 receiving yards in his career thanks to a lateral from Chris Godwin Jr., he now has more receiving touchdowns this year than Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Cade Otton, Payne Durham, and Devin Culp combined. He’s also now tied with Brian Thomas Jr. for touchdowns this season.
Jokes aside, it was nice to see the Bucs actually get creative in the redzone rather than hand it off four or five times straight from the half inch line, which they may or may not have done in New Orleans earlier this year.
It would be really, really cool if Emeka Egbuka could stop dropping the ball. While yes, Baker has had some accuracy issues this year, partially due to injuries and adjusting to batted passes, but Egbuka has a catch rate of just 51.5%, which is 16th from the bottom of the entire league (180th out of 195). To be completely fair, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr. are 192nd and and 188th, respectively, but Tez Johnson, Cade Otton, Sterling Shepard, and Rachaad White (who’s sitting in third place, with more targets than the two players ahead of him), are all over 60%. Hopefully, we see most of these numbers improve regardless against a Saints defense that has allowed the eighth best completion percentage in the league as well as the eighth best passer rating.
While it was only a 20-17, the game really should not have been that close. I’m not just saying this because the Bucs are a better team, they quite literally left points on the board. Not only was there the rare Chris Godwin Jr., drop in the endzone which resulted in four fewer points, there was what looked like a bad drop by Egbuka on third down on the opening drive that forced a punt from midfield, just as the offense was starting to get rolling, and then when he actually caught the ball on a third and short, Tristan Wirfs gets flagged for a hold that straight up should not have been hold. He managed to pull off a snatch trap, a technique where the offensive lineman uses the defender’s leverage against him and pushes him to the ground by chopping his arms at the elbow. It’s a great technique, and unfortunately pretty consistently gets flagged by the NFL despite being a legal play.
In a similar vein, the Bucs defense forced two turnovers, and the offense didn’t manage to capitalize either time, with both ending in punts, which seems to be a running theme for this season as well. The team simply cannot play complementary football for the life of them. They have yet to play a solid, full four quarters of both offense and defense. They’ve had good and bad games out of both units, but they haven’t been able to pair a good defensive game with a good offensive game.
Despite what the box score says, the defense played a pretty good game all around. While they did give up a few marathon drives, any time you can give up 17 points, get two takeaways, and make the stop at the end of the game, it’ll be a pretty decent game at minimum.
On the other hand, the Bucs defense seems to have traded the long touchdowns we saw them give up against Buffalo and New England for the Death by 1000 Cuts approach they took in 2024, where the defense simply can’t seem to buy a stop. The Cardinals only faced eight third downs, partially because the Bucs couldn’t stop them from converting on first and second down. The only other times a team has faced fewer than 10 third downs in a game against the Bucs were away against Seattle, which I will argue is their worst defensive performance of the year by far to this point, and the game away against Houston, when the struggling Texans only put up 266 total yards of offense.
Now obviously, QB Jacoby Brissett came into the game hot, having thrown for 769 yards over the last two games, and he’s yet to throw for less than 250 yards all year. The Cardinals also walked into Raymond James having lost to the 49ers, Seahawks, Colts, Packers, and Jaguars (all playoff times) by a combined 15 points. This wasn’t going to be as easy a game as some fans seemed to expect, but the Bucs won regardless. Obviously, they could’ve had a better game on offense and defense (shoutout to Special Teams Player of The Week Riley Dixon, and the rest of the Teams unit as a whole, as they avoided an embarrassing gaffe for what seems like the first time all year), but they won the game.
The Bucs now have their easiest stretch of the season now facing the Saints (2-10), Falcons (4-8), Panthers (7-6), Dolphins (5-7), and Panthers again. While I’ll admit, the Panthers are starting to put together some signature wins, they still sport a point differential of -50, and they’ve still lost some really bad games this year. While obviously, they’ll still be a tougher matchup this year than they’ve been for the Bucs in a while. But we’ll get to that analysis when we get to it.
The New Orleans Saints are entering a rebuilding era. They’ve lost six of their last seven, and their lone win since week five was against the Carolina Panthers. The Bucs defense laid down a beating last time, and the Bucs could have easily beat them by 40 had the Refs not blown two Antoine Winfield Jr. touchdowns dead early, and had Josh Grizzard not forgotten how to call an offense in the red zone.
All signs are pointing to another big win for the Bucs. Obviously, this is a division opponent in the NFL, where any given Sunday, anybody can beat anybody. But the Bucs are healthier on both offense and defense, the offensive playcalling has shown signs of improvement with a more full array of weapons, and still just a few weeks removed from a pretty rough losing streak. The Bucs are nearly fully healthy for this game, with Tristan Wirfs and Benjamin Morrison questionable and no starters out (besides those on injured reserve/returning from injured reserve).
The Saints on the other hand, will be down Alvin Kamara, though he’s had less than 800 yards in his 11 starts and just one touchdown on the year, as well as starting safety Justin Reid, and starting RT Taliese Fuaga. WR Chris Olave is also questionable, though he was limited for the last two days of practice this week.
The Saints Quarterback situation has been interesting to watch as well this season. Tyler Shough entered the game for Spencer Rattler against the Bucs (and threw an interception on his very first drive). After a rough first start against the LA Rams, he’s posted 225+ yards at a 68% completion rate, with 4 touchdowns and “only” two interceptions in his last three starts, but he’s still taking a ton of sacks. Of 36 qualified Quarterbacks, he ranks 24th in Sack percentage, and has the smallest sample size (four starts) of anyone on this list. He’s also 35th in Pressure to Sack ratio (per PFF), where he allows 23.3% of pressures to turn into sacks.
The Bucs didn’t quite have a “get right” game against the Cardinals, but they’ll have every opportunity in the world against a team that has looked ineffective at best against teams that are better than them. While the Saints defense has put together some more competent performances than the offense, the return of Bucky Irving and a healthier offensive line should reap big results for the Bucs offense, even against a surprisingly stout defensive line led by Chase Young, Carl Granderson, and Cam Jordan, who have combined for 16 sacks this season.
The Saints offense could have a nice day in the air, something the Bucs will eternally struggle with, as they boast an extremely high blitz rate, a sub-par inside linebacking group (at least in coverage), and an underperforming secondary. But their passing performance will hinge on the offensive line, one that struggled against a Bucs defensive line that lacked Haason Reddick, and an offensive line that itself will be without its starting Right Tackle, which is where Reddick aligns the vast majority of the time.
In all honesty, this game has no business being close if the Bucs perform the way they ought to. They are by far the more talented team, at home, against a division rival that’s been eliminated from playoff contention. The Bucs will look to extend their three game winning streak to four, and win their seventh game against the Saints in the last four years, and a third Saints game in a row at home.
Prediction: Bucs W 35-10
