Bucs in Must-Win Mode

That has to be one of the worst five day stretches in Bucs history. Not only did they get beat, at home, by Tyler Shough and Friends, they got beat AGAIN on Thursday Night Football by Kirk Cousins for what feels like the millionth time in his career. In the middle of a playoff hunt, coming off of a brutal 2-4 stretch with losses at Detroit, vs New England, at Buffalo, and at Los Angeles, these were two must win games at home against inferior division opponents where the Bucs were favored.

Not good. And no one seems to have any answers. Not the team, and certainly not the staff. 

After a 6-2 start, 7-7 is absolutely unacceptable. Even if they win out, they are guaranteed to finish below .500 in their games after the bye week. And winning out feels far from guaranteed. 

Because after looking like borderline Super Bowl favorites, with a betting favorite to win MVPplaying Quarterback, the Bucs are division or bust for the fourth year in a row. And a defense that looked much improved from last season has regressed back to the mean. 

The truth is that this team overperformed last year. Liam Coen was a rare talent at offensive coordinator and the Bucs were lucky to have him. His and the offense’s performance was wasted by a bad Bucs defense.

Most importantly, Baker Mayfield overperformed. While he’s been better about limiting sacks and turnovers this year, he’s regressed across the board. Yes, he’s playing through injury, yes, the offense has been patchwork across the board all year. But he has had a serious accuracy issue this year that didn’t exist before week 6. I can’t recall a stretch of his career where he has missed so consistently beyond 10+ yards. 

Combine the Quarterback struggles, lack of a consistent run game due to injuries to Bucky Irving and the entire offensive line (besides Graham Barton, and even he’s shuffled positions), the lack of WR1, 2, and 4 for looong stretches of the season, and an offensive coordinator who has struggled (as all first year play-callers can be expected to), it’s no wonder the offense is painfully average. 

While they sparked against the Falcons, it’s ultimately on Baker’s shoulders that they don’t win that game. Not only does he throw the interception with eight minutes on the clock only up one score, he ends up throwing a ball behind Egbuka (a running theme all season), and had he hit him in stride, he very well may have scored.

Now defensively….

Todd Bowles is a very nice person who I have no personal problems with. Nor do I think it’s all on his shoulders. But man. He just doesn’t seem to have any answers. It is wild to see the defense straight surrender at the end of games, as they have for what, four straight seasons? Yeah, occasionally they don’t wet themselves, but when was the last time the Bucs won a game with the defense on the field needing a stop, not including missed field goals (God bless Younghoe Koo)?

The defense is just not good. How could we expect them to be good when they can’t draft well defensively? They’ve spent five first or second round picks on the defense since the Super Bowl. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka? Never lived up to expectations. Logan Hall? I’m pretty sure offenses build their run game to attack wherever he aligns every snap. Chris Braswell? Raw physical talent, but you never hear his name called. Benjamin Morrison? Still a rookie, but he can’t stay on the field. Calijah Kancey is the best of the bunch and he tore a Pec in week 2.

They can’t get pressure with four, and they can’t cover well when they blitz. It’s a recipe for disaster. 

They’ve struggled to stay healthy all year, just as they couldn’t last year. And due to injury, with the game on the line, with Zyon McCollum (who gets picked on anyway) out with a hip injury, the Bucs turn to journeyman Corner Kindle Vildor, who they brought in as a free agent on 4th and 14. Surely he’ll sink to the sticks, yeah? After all, you can rally to tackle a ballcarrier in the flats, even if his nameplate says Robinson. No. Wrong. Instead he jumps the flat (4th and 14 by the way), and the Bucs again have to rely on Antoine Winfield Jr. to make an inhuman play, and this time he just can’t.

Keep in mind, we’re talking about 70 year old Kirk Cousins just two years removed from a torn achilles. He’s as immobile as they come. And they just couldn’t move him off his spot.

I will grant the Bucs defense that they did force two fumbles on the final two drives, one of which was ruled “simultaneous recovery” (whatever that means), and the other miraculously doesn’t end up in their hands. But it was 3rd and 28. And then 4th and 14

Third. And. 28.

Fourth. And. 14.

I don’t care who’s lined up on offense. It could be Tom Brady throwing to Jerry Rice, Rob Gronkowski, and Randy Moss, and handing it off to Barry Sanders. If you can’t field and scheme a defense to get a stop on either of those plays, you won’t win football games past December. 

As for the Saints game… 

It’s mostly the same story defensively. The linebackers are too slow, the defensive line gets no pressure with four, although Shough didn’t beat us through the air. 

The offense ground to a standstill even with Bucky Irving back in the lineup. And shockingly, a Todd Bowles coaching staff that has almost gotten too aggressive on fourth downs. They went for it an astonishing SEVEN times, and converted just twice. And unfortunately, it may discourage them from going for it when they should be. 

Alas, not much else can be said about this game, because the Bucs are finally (mostly) healthy. Aside from the four starters on injured reserve (RG Cody Mauch, LG Ben Bredeson, CB Zyon McCollum, DL Calijah Kancey), there is no one on the injury report headed into this matchup with the Carolina Panthers. There are really no excuses.

The Bucs now get to play the most confusing team in the NFL. While Dave Canales Carolina Panthers boast wins over the LA Rams, Green Bay Packers, and the Dallas Cowboys, they’ve also been swept by the Saints and lost to the then-Kyler Murray-led Arizona Cardinals.

Their defense is middle of the pack at best in counting stats, like yards and touchdowns allowed. They’re dead last in pressure rate (15.3%), and they’ve logged 23 sacks on the season, good for 29th in the league this year. They’ve only logged 50 tackles for loss as well, good for 31st in the league this year. Miraculously, they’ve been a top ten unit forcing interceptions, largely thanks to CB Jaycee Horn’s five and CB Michael Jackson’s three. 

While they’ve actually managed to hold teams to a 56% conversion rate in the red zone (12th in the league), they’re a bottom 10 unit on third and fourth downs. 

They’ve been one of the very worst units in the league for three seasons, and honestly it goes back further than that. Even though the Bucs struggled to put the game away last year in Carolina, needing a forced fumble by Anthony Nelson in overtime, they ended up dropping 48 on the same team later that month in a career day for Baker Mayfield. With a full array of weapons, the Bucs SHOULD perform in similar fashion, despite starting two practice squad level guards.

 The Panthers offense on the other hand, really doesn’t require a second hand. They’re 26th in passing yards per game, 22nd in passing touchdowns, and only 14th in yards per attempt on the ground despite ranking 9th in rushing attempts on the year. I’m convinced that Canales would run a wishbone offense if an NFL team would let him. Who wouldn’t with Bryce Young at quarterback? 

With as much water as I’ve carried for him over the years, he’s still proved to be average at best. Just a guy. His nine interceptions are 11th in the league, and he ranks 20th in success rate among passers this year, 23rd in QBR, and 24th in passer rating, and 21st in completion percentage. They don’t throw a lot, and they’re inefficient when they do.

They’ve made the entire passing offense out of rookie Tetairoa McMillan, who has 525 yards more than anyone else on the team, and 30% of the teams passing yardage total. Luckily, neither of their running backs have been particularly explosive in the pass game, with both averaging a little over 8 yards per catch, but it would make sense for the Panthers to lean on their running backs and tight ends (who have accounted for right around 1000 receiving yards combined) against an extremely weak LB core for the Bucs. 

The formula for the Bucs is fairly simple against a familiar opponent. Bryce Young is the worst quarterback in the NFL when blitzed, according to PFF, and the Bucs blitz just about the most out of anyone. But the Bucs run defense has struggled as of late, and the Panthers run a lot. This game could get out of hand quickly for the Bucs if Baker Mayfield can’t figure it out on Sunday. While I obviously don’t think the Panthers ought to have much of a shot when you consider the talent disparity on the field… the Bucs can lose to anyone. 

That being said…

Prediction: Bucs W, 28-24 (OT)