RBLR Rays Roundtable – 4/13/2026
The emotional restoration of Tropicana Field has reinvigorated the local community, while a high-stakes rotation makeover is already yielding massive dividends for the pitching staff. As these veteran signings anchor a unit and the “Home Sweet Dome” era resumes, a critical question remains: can the team’s young core solve the lingering offensive gaps needed to transition a Wild Card hopeful into a true World Series contender?
Sandy (@SandyAndTheRays) : Home Sweet Dome
Baseball is back at Tropicana Field, and it looks better than ever.
For the first time in 561 days, after both the Trop and the Tampa Bay area were devastated by Hurricane Milton, the Rays returned last Monday for their home opener against the Chicago Cubs. It felt fitting — and momentous — that they pulled out a 6-4 win in front of a sellout crowd of 25,114.
The Rays marked the occasion with a pregame ceremony honoring the workers, first responders, and staff who helped bring the Trop back to life. St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch and Tampa Mayor Jane Castor threw out the first pitches, and the ceremony included a flag presentation led by the crew involved in repairing the roof and broader restoration efforts.
“It was an important day for Rays baseball and unique for what we’ve gone through,” manager Kevin Cash said after the game. “Very well done.”
Though it’s still a temporary home as the team continues to pursue a new ballpark in Tampa, the Trop has been the Rays’ home since 1998. The city of St. Pete invested nearly $60 million into repairs, including a new roof, turf, and lighting. The upgrades even go beyond the field: the Rays modernized the facility with new equipment, expanded fitness and recovery spaces, and updated luxury suites and video boards.
I, for one, am especially excited to see everything in person when I’m down in St. Pete this July.
Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : Just “Short” Of Contending
What separates the Rays from being a true contender? In general, the Rays have many of the baseline traits of a possible Wild Card team: a star in Junior Caminero, viable No. 1, 2, and 3 starters, a bullpen that despite its rough start should still finish as a top 5-7 unit in baseball, and solid above-average bats in Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda.
The outfield is still a little unsettled, but it should be able to provide roughly average everyday production. Richie Palacios has been excellent so far at 2nd, and Hunter Feduccia has been viable with the bat at catcher. The one real hole is at short.
The hope entering 2026 was that Carson Williams would take enough steps with the bat to stick in the majors. Instead, he has been sent down to get consistent at-bats and continue refining his pitch selection. Carson’s issues have always centered on pitch recognition, especially his inability to consistently identify off speed and breaking pitches. That has remained true in 2026. Against pitches 92 mph or harder, he has produced a .349 wOBA with a 9.1% strikeout rate. Against itches below 92 mph, he has a .000 wOBA and a 57.1% strikeout rate. Sliders and sweepers in particular have been a major issue, with his career strikeout rate against them sitting near 50%.
This is not unique to Carson. Junior Caminero had similar pitch identification concerns as a prospect, though they never became severe enough to create major strikeout problems as a prospect. They were still evident while he was burning his rookie eligibility, as Junior posted a .499 wOBA against four-seamers with a 22.5% strikeout rate, compared to .264 and .274 wOBA marks and 26.7% and 30.4% strikeout rates against sliders and sweepers. That has since flipped as in 2025 he produced a .399 wOBA against sliders.
With little reason to expect much more from the current MLB options, Carson will probably get another shot at shortstop in 2026. The hope is that more AAA reps will help him better identify offspeed and breaking pitches. He is still only 22, and 12 months ago he was viewed as a legitimate top-10 prospect in baseball. He was always a boom-or-bust prospect, but he is also realistically the only in-house option with real upside at shortstop. Hopefully, consistent at-bats will see more progression with pitch id concerns and an uptick in production when he returns to the MLB.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Steven Matz & Nick Martinez Hot Starts
This offseason, the Rays decided to shift against the younger and inexperienced rotation and opted to commit $21.5 million dollars to veteran pitchers Steven Matz and Nick Martinez.
On his own, Matz is shaping up to be one of the biggest signings in Major League Baseball. Steven signed with Tampa Bay during the annual Winter Meetings on a 2-year, $ 15 million pact and has provided an instant return on investment. Tampa Bay is 3-0 in games started by Matz, and his 27% strikeout% is not only a career best for Matz, but it also lands in the top 25 among qualified major league arms. Steven has had to adapt, transitioning from reliever back into a starter. A big part of this adaptation is reshaping his slider from a seldom-used gyro ball into a more traditional slider with bigger bite and sweep. The offering has returned a 35.7% whiff% up from 22.2% last season. The changeup has always been Matz’s best secondary shape, and since joining the Rays, he has leaned on it more than ever, throwing it 32% of the time and returning a 41.7% whiff% (highest of any one pitch of his career).
In a much later acquisition, Nick Martinez joined the Rays on what is practically a 1-year $13 million deal with a mutual option for 2027 worth up to $20 million. Tampa Bay is also 3-0 when Martinez takes the ball this season, as he has outduelled the likes of Max Fried and Kyle Harrison this season. Like Matz, Martinez has leaned on his changeup as well, ironically using it 32% of the time as well and 10% more than any pitch. The pitch has been dominant, returning a 33.3% whiff% and a .124 wOBA. This and the increase in sinker usage have allowed Martinez to protect a 4-Seam fastball that got clubbed last season (.382 wOBA allowed).
The Rays opted for more stability and consistency from their rotation, and the early returns are extremely strong. With how the offense has performed, paired with how these two have performed, this Rays team appears poised to snap their 2 year playoff drought.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
