RBLR Rays Roundtable – 5/4/26 – Breaking Basepaths & Projections
The Rays were slated for a last-place finish, but a 21-12 start has set that narrative on fire. As the rotation settles in and the lineup continues to terrorize the paths, the Rays are proving that their brand of baseball works best when the world writes them off.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Nick The Great
On February 9th, the Rays agreed to a 1 year contract (including a mutual option for a second) with veteran right-hander Nick Martinez. Most simply viewed Martinez as just a veteran innings eater, but up to this point, Martinez has been the Rays most productive Starting Pitcher.
Nick’s 1.70 ERA places him 3rd among qualified Major League pitchers. Despite what the raw peripheral metrics say, this start for Martinez isn’t much of a fluke. His 29.8% hard hit% (89th percentile) allowed is a career best, and in a year where walks are skyrocketing, Martinez simply isn’t walking many batters; his 6.1% BB% lands him in the 84th percentile.
In a year where the Rays have cut back on four-seam fastball usage, the fourth most in Major League Baseball, there hasn’t been a larger example than Martinez. Nick allowed a .382 wOBA and -8 RV last year on his four-seamer, a pitch he threw over 20% of the time last season. Since joining the Rays, Martinez has largely ditched his four-seam fastball, as it’s down to 10%. In trade, Martinez has ramped up his sinker usage, a pitch that has been very kind to him as he has allowed a .225 wOBA and +6 RV.
If Martinez can pitch anywhere near this way the rest of the season, he is shaping up to be one of the biggest bargains this free agency. His consistency and competitiveness moving forward will play a huge factor in whether this Rays team can reach its ceiling or not.
Yurika Wheeler (@yurikaRBLR) : The Misfits Charge On
The preseason consensus suggested a significant step back for the ragtag bunch of misfit Rays, with analytical projections favoring a finish of roughly 78 wins and a last-place standing in the AL East. 19% of the season later, the team has dismantled the narrative of a rebuilding year and entered early May with a 21-12 record.
They also secured a three-game sweep over the Yankees last month! This organization has once again exceeded expectations and remain firmly in the hunt for the AL East.
One of the most underrated developments is the team’s 10-2 record against the AL Central, with successful series wins against the usually-weirdly-tough-for-us Chicago White Sox (16-18) and Taj Bradley-led Minnesota (15-20). These victories have been a difference from previous seasons and allowed the team to build a substantial lead in the wild card race.
So, how?
Individual contributions have been equally surprising given the low preseason expectations. The rotation is now settling into a rhythm behind the strong performance of too-old-and-expensive Nick Martinez (who holds a 1.70 ERA), and Steven Matz’s quality starts from the back of the rotation. Chandler Simpson might not hit over the fence, but has emerged as a high-volume threat on the basepaths with 11 stolen bases. Bryan Baker’s steady relief in 14 games have provided critical stability on the mound.
As a team, they’ve embraced a retro small-ball feel by running crazy on the bases (only the Brewers have more stolen bases) and pressuring the defense. Their league-leading 13 sacrifice bunts are an old-school approach to revolutionize against the modern game.
Ragtag bunch of misfits? It’s working so far.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
