RBLR Rays Weekly Roundtable – 7/20/26 – Filling In The Cracks

The Rays are clinging to first place, and clinging is the operative word. Five losses in their last five games hasn’t knocked them out of the driver’s seat, but it’s exposed just how thin the margin for error really is. With the trade deadline bearing down, the roster’s cracks are getting harder to paper over on talent and timing alone.

So we asked our writers where they’d start. Not the obvious “buy or sell” debate but the harder question of where the money and prospect capital actually needs to go. The answers didn’t all land in the same place, but there’s a common thread: this team gets deeper before it gets scarier in October.

Cory Ketchum (u/FLBoy19) : Getting More Out of 2B

FanGraphs does an annual series known as the Replacement-Level Killers. The series looks to determine which positional groups on contending teams are providing the least value. For the Rays, two positional groups are flagged, with the first and worst being second base, where the Rays have had the lowest WAR production of any contending team at 0.3 WAR.

The position has been fielded by Richie Palacios and Ben Williamson. The duo has combined for an 87 wRC+, with Palacios in particular dragging down the positional value with a 67 wRC+ when playing second. In recent history, second base has never been a concern due to Brandon Lowe’s bat, as when healthy, he could drive the offense. However, post-Brandon Lowe, the current combinations the Rays can trot out at second are not acceptable if they wish to properly lengthen the lineup come October.

Even with Gavin Lux due to return to the MLB roster, Luis Arraez remains the most common-sense trade target for the Rays. Arraez is a competent MLB hitter. He is limited with regard to power but can get on base at an acceptable level, with a career .364 OBP.

The cost for Arraez will not be substantial due to his status as a rental, with the only driving force behind the price being competition from other teams. The high end of what the Rays would likely pay is Michael Forret or Caden Bodine, players who possess high floors but lower ceilings.

The Rays could also deal from their depth in the middle infield or starting pitching with players such as Jackson Baumeister, Adrian Santana, Daniel Peirce, Jadher Areinamo, or Gary Gill Hill. The worst-case scenario is Forret plus a 35-FV prospect for Arraez. In the best-case scenario, the Giants take a quantity approach and look to acquire three 35–40 FV prospects, such as Hill, Adrian Santana, and Baumeister. This would allow the Rays to retain Forret for a possible future move. I am unsure of how much the Rays will buy, but if only a trade occurs, Luis Arraez would make the most sense of any.

Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Still Some Questions To Answer

After losing their last five games, the Rays remain atop the American League East and still control their own destiny moving forward, but the four-game series sweep of the Boston Red Sox calls for many questions surrounding the roster. 

It’s no secret that Yandy, Aranda, and Junior have been the primary three carrying this roster for the majority of the season, and the production as of now is not sufficient enough for this team to cling to their slim division lead. Once you get past those three, the Rays only have three others over league average (Vilade, Mesa JR, and DeLuca), two of whom are largely extreme part-time players that get matched up accordingly in Mesa JR and Vilade. This lack of productivity makes it difficult when the aforementioned “Big 3” all slump below their season averages in July (Caminero 129, Aranda 113, Diaz 56 wRC+). Rounding out this position player group with even just average regulars would help tremendously.

The bullpen has consistently been a position of strength for the Rays. It’s a group that has remained above a 15% K-BB% every year since 2018. This season, they’re running a 13.4% and land in the bottom third in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. Like the position-player group, the Rays’ main back-two relievers and Baker have been phenomenal this season, both sporting ERAs below 2.4, but beyond that it’s a mess. Garrett Cleavinger and Cole Sulser, in particular, have been two players that have seen medium-high-leverage work this season and have come up short far too often this season. Cam Booser has been a revelation and should stick in middle innings for the group, but once you get past him, it’s a mess. Steven Willson, Steven Matz, and Manny Rodriguez will all help those middle frames within the next month, but this is still an area in which they should look to add.

Two candidates that can shore these two groups and should be relatively cheap? Drew Anderson and Luis Arraez.

Drew Anderson came over from KBO after spending 4 seasons overseas and has been very strong for Detroit’s bullpen. Anderson sports a 20.7% K-BB% thanks to his elite changeup that has returned a 39% whiff%. Anderson is worth roughly $2.5 million for the rest of the season and holds a $10 million club option in 2027.

For about the last month, it feels as if everyone has linked Luis Arraez to the Rays for good reason. Arraez is a true rental owed about $4.5 million for the rest of the season and would fit the Rays like a glove. His career 126 wRC+ vs right handed pitching would be a large upgrade over Richie Palacios (career 94 wRC+) and, with Gavin Lux’s most recent setback, profiles as the best realistic bat on the market.

The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!