RBLR Rays Weekly Roundtable – 8/24/26 – Ready To Fly Home
A manager’s bullpen call that still will not leave him alone, a reliever slowly starting to get it back after missing a year, and a first baseman who could not regain his power when the need was never clearer – coupled with some difficult miles in Baltimore and a shrinking division lead. There are plenty of knots to be worked out before the Rays begin another road trip.
Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : Aranda needs to play better for the Rays to start rolling again
Since July 1st, Jonathan Aranda ranks 5th in plate appearances among first baseman in Major League Baseball. This would generally be considered a very good outcome for the Rays, as previously Aranda has had no trouble at the plate, but had trouble staying on the field for extended periods of time. However, he carries the 2nd lowest wRC+ among 1B with over 150 plate appearances since July 1st as well as a -0.1 fWAR in this time frame.
The problem? An inability to drive the baseball and claim extra base hits. Aranda has 9 extra base hits in the past 7.5 weeks has has the second lowest ISO and the lowest SLG% of the group of 27 first baseman with 150+ plate appearances since July 1st.
In fact, Chandler Simpson surprisingly has a much higher SLG in the time frame and an ISO only 0.010 lower than Aranda in the sample size as well.
Aranda’s season numbers still look respectable due to his torrid start to the season, where he was driving the baseball around and was pacing the American League in runs batted in, but in this pennant race, especially with the way the team has looked over the past week and a half, the Rays need Aranda more than ever to be the everyday rock in the lineup he’s expected to be.
If not, a first baseman who’s averaging 1.2 extra base hits a week over a third of the season becomes a void in your lineup, especially as he’s penciled into the top half daily.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Rodriguez Returns
After a tumultuous year-long hiatus from the Major League club, Manny Rodriguez is finally back and ready to make an impact down the stretch. Before his injury, Rodriguez was enjoying a breakout season, posting a career-best 0.7 fWAR to go alongside his 3.04 FIP, solidifying himself as a go-to option in the backend of the Rays bullpen.
His breakout came as no surprise; his shapes were always plus, and the command slowly, but surely improved as he shifted off his bigger depth breaking ball to a harder and sharper slider that he was able to land more effectively.
Post-injury, Rodriguez shapes appear to be in a similar spot as they were before. His slider is identical, and his fastballs appear to be in a slightly worse but in a similar place as it was before. His results were a mixed bag; the 10.5 ERA looks gaudy, but his 18.8% K-BB% is an extremely encouraging sign. After the acquisition of Tyler Wells, the Rays bullpen is already in a very good spot in the backend, leaving minimal pressure for Manny to come in and immediately contribute in high-leverage situations.
Manny is an exciting player when he is at his fullest, and I cannot wait to see him go out there and positively impact this club down the stretch.
Cory Ketchum (u/FLBoy19) : Cash is King
The Rays are on a slight skid, going 3-7 in their past 10 games but 12-8 in their past 20, a .600 record. So no, the world is not falling; this team is not lost, even if the last 10 games have been rough. As usual, fans can be reactive to poor stretches, especially every decision managers make.
The Tampa Bay Rays are lucky to have Kevin Cash as their manager. Cash is having a season that could earn him his 3rd AL Manager of the Year award. At minimum, he will finish top 3 in voting for the 6th time in 12 years. He is widely considered a top-5 manager in baseball.
However, some fans say Cash is a detriment to the Rays, with the 2020 World Series as a key point. Never mind Cash’s bullpen use against the Yankees and Astros got the Rays there in the first place. Everyone focuses on removing Blake Snell. Why? It was a mix of national media pundits—if you’re listening to Stephen A. Smith talk about baseball, I am sorry—with little baseball knowledge calling it the worst decision ever, and it was the easiest thing to blame the loss on. This wasn’t 2008, when the Rays were bullied by the Phillies; this was a competitive series, and removing Snell gave a clear point to blame.
Those who watched Blake Snell knew he was about to get hit hard. For a career with two Cy Young awards, Snell has a 2.52 FIP the first time through an order, rising to 3.80 the second and 4.00 the third, while his K-BB% falls from 24.3% to 17.5% and then 11.8%.
The Rays had just seen this in Game 2 of the World Series, where Snell was lifted after giving up two runs in the 5th while facing the bottom of the Dodgers lineup for the second time. He also held a 3-2 lead in Game 1 of the ALDS until facing the Yankees lineup a third time and giving up a lead they never regained.
Removing Snell was never the main issue. The bullpen had played 20 games in 28 days, throwing 89 of the team’s 175.2 postseason innings. Nick Anderson was overworked, and bringing him in was not a good decision. However, Pete Fairbanks and Diego Castillo were not great options either. Castillo had pitched the game before, while Fairbanks was very effective that postseason. It was a regrettable decision.
So what actually caused the 2020 World Series loss? A total lack of offense. The Rays scored more than 3 runs in only two games, winning both. Only once more did they score 3, in a Game 1 loss. In four losses, they scored only 8 runs, or 2 per game. The Dodgers averaged 5.33.
Only the Rays outfield showed up as a positional group: left field had a 123 wRC+, center 163, and right field 122. Three of four Rays hitters with non-bench roles and at least 10 PAs had a wRC+ over 100: Randy Arozarena (229), Kevin Kiermaier (211), and Manuel Margot (118).
The only respectable position beyond that was 1st base, entirely due to Yandy Diaz’s 211 wRC+ in his platoon role. Ji Man Choi had the 6th-best wRC+ among non-bench players at 58. Brandon Lowe had 70, Austin Meadows 1, Willy Adames -3, Joey Wendle -23, and Mike Zunino -48. Mike Brosseau did his typical left-handed specialist thing with a 129 wRC+ in 7 PAs, while Hunter Renfroe slugged to a respectable 92. The Rays received sub-50 wRC+ production from catcher (-48), 2nd base (43), SS (-3), and DH (-15), while 3rd base was at least above 50 at 57.
But yeah, the Rays lost the 2020 World Series because Kevin Cash pulled Blake Snell.
Sandy (@SandyAndTheRays): Orioles Have Our Number?
Well, that’s a wrap from Baltimore, and it couldn’t come at a more welcome time for the Rays. After going 9-0 on their West Coast road trip earlier this month, Tampa Bay then dropped three consecutive series against AL East opponents — two of them against the Orioles. The first series, from August 14-17, was already more than enough, and then facing the O’s again over the weekend with such a short turnaround… at that point, I was ready to face just about anybody else. At least the Rays managed to sneak out of Baltimore with a win on Sunday.
Every season, every team seems to have one opponent that they just can’t seem to figure out. Since I started following the team, that’s been the Mariners (which made it all the more impressive that the Rays swept their series in Seattle earlier this month!). I suppose this season, it’s the O’s.
Tampa Bay swept its very first series against Baltimore in mid-May, but has an overall 5-8 record against them this season. Not exactly ideal for a team at the top of the American League, and now the lead over the Yankees in the AL East stands at just three games. That makes the final late-September series against the Yankees in New York all the more important — and potentially decisive.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
