RBLR Rays Weekly Roundtable – 9/14/26 – Postseason Pre-Planning
The Rays have officially booked their spot in the postseason, but the real work is just beginning: Deciphering who’s actually going to get the job done for them in October. This roster is deeper than what the win-loss ledger suggests – there’s bullpen reinforcements clicking with their stuff, breakout bats that weren’t high on anyone’s list in March. These are the ones our staff believes will matter most this stretch.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Playoff Difference Makers
After two disappointing seasons, the Tampa Bay Rays have clinched their tenth-ever postseason appearance and are heading back to the place they belong. This is a very complete and dynamic team that is strong at virtually every spot you can think of, but who are the two difference-makers that can define how far this team can go?
Victor Mesa Jr –
Due to an injury in late May to outfielder Jake Fraley, Mesa was quickly recalled to fill in his place and was viewed as a glove-first fifth outfielder, but man, things change quickly, as Mesa JR is currently 41st in Major League Baseball in wRC+ (min 200 PA’s), and he pairs that with 9 OAA/13 DRS. Victor’s emergence at getting the ball in the air to his pull side has made me reimagine him as a player, and he should positively impact this club come October.
Freddy Peralta –
Over his last four starts, Peralta has looked comfortable with Tampa Bay, allowing just two runs over 23 IP. What has changed? Freddy has seen steady increases in fastball velocity and extension in September, which has also allowed his fastball to return the single lowest wOBA allowed in any month this season (.223). In recent starts, Freddy Peralta has ditched his slider in favor of a new cutter shape that he can throw vs. both sides of the plate more effectively.
The postseason can’t come sooner, and I cannot wait to watch this team prove to everyone why they have been the best team in the American League throughout the entirety of the 2026 season.
Cory Ketchum (u/FLBoy19) : Brody Hopkins Has Arrived
As the Rays steam toward the postseason, they are in the process of reinforcing their bullpen for October. Although each 40-man addition will require an injury waiver to be approved by the commissioner’s office, those requests are rarely rejected.
One week after adding Ty Johnson to the bullpen, the Rays have added Brody Hopkins. Brody’s command has been an issue this year, as seen by his egregious 21% BB rate; however, his stuff is arguably the best in the minors, as he has paired that walk rate with a 28% SO rate. Additionally, since his move from a bulk-innings eater to single-inning appearances, his command issues have not resurfaced to the same degree, with two walks over his previous nine innings in the role compared with 13 SOs.
Brody has always possessed reliever risk due to his general command issues and his initial sidearm slot. However, the Rays tempered some of those concerns with instruction improving his arm slot to more repeatable slot, which helped Hopkins come closer to reaching his high ceiling. I believe the Rays still view Hopkins as a starter; however, it’s important to remember that Brody is new to pitching, only taking on the role as a junior in college little over 4 years ago. Additionally, the Rays have deployed young starters as relievers as an introduction to MLB hitters, with David Price and Shane McClanahan being utilized in relief roles during their first exposure to the majors.
Hopkins still, by far, has the highest ceiling of any Rays minor league pitcher, boasting three pitches that should grade out as plus and, in particular, a fastball he can run up to 102 MPH with great ride, which he pairs with solid extension maximizing the perceived velocity of the pitch. The Rays will likely look to work on his delivery this winter to help him find more consistency and improve his overall command before stretching him out in the spring.
As a whole, Brody Hopkins will be really fun to watch in his initial run at the MLB level. Although there might be growing pains as we end this season and roll into next year, it’s important to keep in context that he has only been a pitcher for four years at this point. All the while, he has been able to post a 28% SO rate through his professional carrer (had a 12.7% swinging-strike rate even with the command issues this year) while limiting hard contact by allowing only a 7.4% HR/FB rate and never giving up more than 0.54 HR/9 in his professional career.
Worst-case scenario, Brody becomes a high-leverage reliever that Rays fans will see through this season, but that ace ceiling is still there.
Sandy (@SandyAndTheRays): Dreaming Of October
Is it too early to say World Series or bust for this 2026 Tampa Bay Rays team?
Well, playoff baseball will be upon us soon enough, and we just got through an exciting weekend. The Rays clinched a playoff spot on Friday in the most fitting fashion, with Junior Caminero launching a walk-off home run to punch the Rays’ ticket to the postseason.
The team also completed a weekend series sweep against the Astros, notching 90 wins on the year.
It’s hard not to think everything is falling into place for this team. Even with all the changes to the roster entering the season, they find themselves at the top of the American League with just two weeks of regular-season baseball to go. It’ll certainly be interesting when they’re back in New York next week for a pivotal four-game series against the Yankees.
This team feels special. Junior Caminero is putting together a legitimate MVP campaign, Bryan Baker just picked up his 40th save of the season, and Victor Mesa Jr. homered in three straight games last week. It feels like every time you turn around, there’s another Ray stepping up and giving us something to talk about. And you know you’re doing something right when even MLB’s social media accounts are taking notice.
Maybe it’s a little early to say World Series or bust, but I think it’s fair to dream a little bigger.
Carter Brantley (@ctbrantley12) : Successful Surprises
With a team having a season as successful as the Rays, it’s easy to point at performances from expected stars as the reason for winning.
Junior, Yandy, Ras, etc.
But who are the guys who have stepped up out of nowhere to make a bigger impact than expected?
Richie Palacios
Once thought of as a DFA candidate whenever Gavin Lux was supposed to return (yikes), Richie P has turned into a fun player over the last month.
Through the first half of September he has an absolutely eye-popping 234 wRC+. That’s not sustainable or true to his talent level, but by golly he’s been fun!
Throw in some, ahem, below average (but not quite Brandon Lowe bad) defense at second and some solid baserunning and you’ve got a borderline average starting second baseman.
He’s still not quite at a full win for the year, but he’s got a chance to get there for the first time since 2024.
Nick Martinez
Duh; the Rays signed another average pitcher and he’s submitting an All-Star-caliber season.
He probably should’ve been the first name on this list, but I wanted to throw a changeup.
Speaking of changeups, Martinez is one of what seems like the entire Rays pitching staff that has increased his changeup usage. It’s only a 6% increase, but it has led to some excellent results. It’s been one of the most valuable offspeed pitches in baseball according to run value.
The xSLG (and actual SLG) against the pitch are below .300, and the pitch has a near-32% whiff rate. Bonkers stuff.
Bryan Baker
Could I talk about Victor Mesa, Jr. here? Sure; but Baker was an All-Star and has 40 saves! Not that either of those things are totally reflective of success, but Baker has been an excellent, anchoring force for this bullpen.
At times the group has looked a little shaky, with Cam Booser being another surprisingly important contributor, as they’re bottom-10 in FIP. They’re only middle of the pack in terms of ERA, but that’s being helped a bit by a league-low .260 BABIP.
Yet when the 9th inning comes around, and the Rays have a lead, things have been pretty secure.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
