Knowles: Searching For The Rowdies’ Best Defense

For this article, I set out with the intention of trying to see if there was a way to determine what our best defense is for the year 2022. If possible, this was supposed to be based on statistics from all the games we’ve played up until this point. What I found was intriguing, if not unexpected. Let’s look at the numbers first.

Below are all the lineups of our starting back four or back five from left to right, with the number of examples, subsequent record (wins-losses-draws), and total goals conceded: 

• Dalgaard, Guillen, Castellanos, Scarlett, Antley:  X – 1; 0-0-1; goals conceded: 1
• Fernandes, Guillen, Antley, Scarlett, Dalgaard:  X – 4; 2-0-2; goals conceded: 1
• Areman, Guillen, Antley, Scarlett, Dalgaard: X – 1; 0-1-0; goals conceded: 1
• Areman, Guillen, Antley, Wyke, Dalgaard: X – 1; 1-0-0; goals conceded: 1
• Areman, Guillen, Antley, Wyke, Harris: X – 1; 0-0-1; goals conceded: 1
• Fernandes, Guillen, Antley, Wyke, Harris: X – 1; 0-1-0; goals conceded: 1
• Fernandes, Guillen, Mehl, Scarlett, Antley: X – 1; 0-1-0; goals conceded: 3
• Areman, Guillen, Wyke, Scarlett, Harris: X – 1; 1-0-0; goals conceded: 1
• Areman, Guillen, Scarlett, Wyke, Dalgaard: X – 2; 2-0-0; goals conceded: 2
• Areman, Guillen, Scarlett, Vancaeyezeele, Dalgaard: X – 2; 1-0-1; goals conceded: 2
• Areman, Guillen, Scarlett, Wyke, Antley: X – 2; 2-0-0; goals conceded: 2
• Dalgaard, Guillen, Wyke, Vancaeyezeele, Antley: X – 1; 0-0-1; goals conceded: 1
• Guillen, Antley, Scarlett, Wyke: X – 2; 2-0-0; goals conceded: 2
• Guillen, Vancaeyezeele, Scarlett, Wyke: X – 1; 1-0-0; goals conceded: 2
• Areman, Guillen, Vancaeyezeele, Antley, Dalgaard: X – 1; 1-0-0; goals conceded: 1
• Guillen, Antley, Scarlett, Wyke, Dalgaard: X – 1; 1-0-0; goals conceded: 0
• Dalgaard, Guillen, Antley, Scarlett, Harris: X – 1; 0-0-1; goals conceded: 1
• Dalgaard, Guillen, Antley, Scarlett, Wyke: X – 1; 0-0-1; goals conceded: 1
• Dalgaard, Guillen, Castellanos, Wyke, Antley: X – 1; 1-0-0; goals conceded: 1
• Guillen, Scarlett, Castellanos, Wyke, Antley: X -1; 1-0-0; goals conceded: 1

What sticks out most immediately to me is the number of different configurations the Rowdies have actually played at the back this season. The most starts we have given any one set of players is four, while we have also morphed into an actual back four more often than last season.

Of note is also the frequency with which we have started different keepers. CJ Cochran is by far the better of the two starters so far this year, conceding eighteen goals in twenty-two starts compared to Raiko Arozarena’s eight in four starts. 

Arozarena is far from the sole reason for a bad stretch during his run of games. He’s a player that I like and that I expect to do better in the future, even if his record this season showed him to be the less reliable option. Neill Collins, our intrepid Scottish manager, will frequently state that defense is a whole-team endeavor anyway. He follows up that rhetoric with action by instituting a strong pressing game, beginning up top with our attackers, more often than not.

If a team is able to get one past this Rowdies defense, it will rarely be one player who’s liable, whether or not they’re a listed defender. Yann Ekra giving away a foul that led to a free kick from which Orange County scored directly is the closest example to that I can remember offhand.

What conclusions, can we draw from this then? What is the point of all this digital ink? So many different numbers with so few representative examples probably leads us to one overall takeaway: all this information is actually not that helpful.

What has been most consistent about the Rowdies’ defensive lineup in 2022 is actually inconsistency. Robert Castellanos, a guy brought in relatively late in preseason seemingly as a replacement for the departing Forrest Lasso (who himself left the team quite late) has only been able to start three games because of an ankle problem suffered fifteen minutes into the season. A player of such quality as him was sorely lacking in certain games, and at least lamented in many others. But, that is the nature of sport: injuries play their own huge part.

Is inconsistency on the backline directly responsible for any dip in form for the Rowdies this year? That’s hard to say. Any so-called “dips” should be rightly measured against both the other teams in the league and the previous heights the Rowdies reached. While we currently sit only five points behind Eastern leaders Louisville City, hardly insurmountable, the likelihood that we reach last season’s points total again is not good. So let’s briefly look at last year’s defense to complete that comparison.

What I remember to be the typical backline from last year of Leo Fernandes, Aaron Guillen, Forrest Lasso, Jordan Scarlett, and Conner Antley only started 10 regular season games during 2021 (and two playoff games). Sebastian Dalgaard, especially towards the end of the season, featured heavily in both of those wingback positions. However, it should be noted that 26 regular season games saw Aaron Guillen, Forrest Lasso, and Jordan Scarlett start as a middle three in the defense, flanked by some combination of Fernandes, Antley, Dalgaard, and Dayonn Harris. (This was also true for three more games in the playoffs.) 

Guillen is currently the only player on the whole of the Rowdies’ roster to have started all twenty-six of the games we’ve played. Scarlett and Antley are other players who have consistently been on the backline. They each have twenty starts so far, while teammates Wyke and Thomas Vancaeyezeele have taken up positions in that usual back three as well. Circumstances change things game to game even without taking into consideration tactical adjustments. Everything, of course, ultimately comes down to choosing the best formation available to take on and beat an opponent. 

There is something to be said, however, for consistency. Playing with the same guy week in, week out right next to you helps a defender succeed. Up the field, things will naturally be more fluid. You are never in a fixed position in soccer, even as a goalkeeper; but, things can be closest to that at the back. You are in a reactive position in which you must prevent shots, crosses, and interplay as best you can. Attackers will try to recreate those patterns they expect are most likely to allow them to get those shots off. If you and the guy next to you are able to understand which parts of the game each one of you is best suited for, then you can try to put yourself in the best position to defend those attacks depending on how they come. Guillen corrals #9 who wants to go on a run, and shows him toward Lasso who uses his own size to further confine #9, allowing the two of them to win the ball. Consistency also breeds confidence, as after you and your partner have stopped a certain type of attack before, you’re more likely to go do it again. 

While consistency is not a be-all and end-all, it can suit a team well defensively. It’s just one reason why managers will substitute attackers more frequently than defenders.

Achieving a type of game in, game out regularity would certainly help a Rowdies club that has benefited from it in the past. With our replacement for a symbol of consistency from last year – both physically and metaphorically as Lasso was – back from injury, getting Castellanos a run of games with the same partner, or partners, will likely bring him and those around him that confidence. If we are to make a good run in the playoffs, the importance of doing so may just prove itself. Getting more sample numbers to work with while they get the reps is the perfect experiment.