Home vs. Sacramento Republic Preview

Date: Saturday June 3, 2023

Kickoff Time: 7:30 pm EST at Al Lang Stadium in St. Petersburg, FL

Records: Tampa Bay Rowdies (20pt 6W-2D-4L); Sacramento Republic (27pts 8W-1D-3L)

Standings: The Rowdies are 2nd in the East and Sacramento are 1st in the West (and overall)

May 2023 has proved to be a good month for the Rowdies; but, there’s one more chapter in it. In what is sure to be the stiffest competition so far this season, the Rowdies host not only the leader of the Western Conference, but the leader of the league itself, Sacramento Republic. With even more points than syllables in their name, SacRepublic have been rolling this season and will bring multiple early MVP candidates to town. How will the hosts respond?

Are the Rowdies playing their best soccer?

What seems like a pretty obvious answer is actually slightly more nuanced. Of course Tampa Bay is playing their best soccer, right? They’re winning now. They weren’t before. Case closed. What else is there to consider?

This is just going to take things a little more granular and look at individual games: that first half against the Switchbacks was some of the best the Rowdies have looked under Neill Collins. Despite missing multiple important players, Tampa Bay has found another gear to switch into and simply are running rampant at their recent opposition. What are the keys to this?

For starters, one position of high value in the past has remained that way throughout 2023. Where the Rowdies previously were most famous for utilizing a 5-2-3 formation, or a close variant thereof, Tampa Bay has stuck with a starting XI that includes four at the back and two wingers higher up. The fullbacks in this setup, though, have different responsibilities. 

Conner Antley on the right and Aaron Guillen on the left are responsible for facilitating possession when the Rowdies have the ball and for blocking off lanes when they don’t. Where they go to do this is extremely interesting: Antley and Guillen will frequently take up positions in front of the right or left-sided central defenders, effectively playing as #8s in midfield. 

In the game against the Switchbacks, Antley in particular would step into this midfield position to help Jordan Doherty and Yann Ekra create a numbers advantage over their opponents. Dayonn Harris, starting as the right winger, would either show wide when there was room created by the triangle of Antley, Doherty, and Ekra or, in certain instances, drop deep so Antley could himself go into the channel down the right wing that he’d helped open up. 

The Rowdies have always been a cross-heavy team and this season has been no different. But this new tactical wrinkle has allowed for better crosses in better areas, and gotten a team that was having trouble creating chances back to its best. Antley, Harris, and Ryan Spaulding on the left have looked a step above anyone trying to rein them in so far  – and Spaulding has looked like a godsend on loan from the New England Revolution. His four assists so far on the year is actually low, not because it’s a small number for his six games played, but because he hasn’t been awarded an assist on occasions when he was wholly responsible for the final shot. 

When out of possession, Spaulding will use his versatility to step back into a defensive role and turn the unit into a back five. Harris isn’t as well known for his work tracking back, mostly doing his defensive duties insofar as he can press the opposition’s backline when they have the ball. Luckily, he hasn’t had to, as Antley stepping wide right and Spaulding filling wide left has filled most holes teams would be looking to exploit. 

The last piece in the defensive puzzle is a player who has stepped into the limelight and shown himself to be ready for the Al Lang Bigtime: Jordan Doherty. JoDo has filled in for Lewis Hilton since the latter went down with what has turned into a longer-term injury and, after one or two games, has made the transition seamless. He’s dogged in defense and has added Hilton’s cross-field switches to his toolbelt, an incredible development for the team overall.

But… Can Sacramento even be overcome?

Nine. That’s the number of goals Russell Cicerone has twelve games into this season. That’s also the number that ties him for league leader in goals with Pittsburgh’s Albert Dikwa. The Republic might seem unbeatable right now. But, there is a blueprint, as they have lost twice recently (it should be noted one of those was against MLS club Colorado Rapids in the Open Cup). 

On May 17th, Orange County hosted Sacramento in southern California. Despite owning the possession statistics, OC beat them both on shots and overall, coming away 1-0 winners. The home team also led the way with a high number of interceptions and clearances, suggesting they won the game mostly by defending and then catching the Republic on the counter. 

Having this information and actually utilizing it are two different things, of course. The Rowdies, while not incapable of playing on the counter, are not used to being the team on the backfoot most of the time. They may not win possession the majority of matches; but, the 62-38% split is uncommon unless in Tampa Bay’s favor. That was the ratio by which Orange County defeated our upcoming opponent. 

What’s more likely is the Rowdies will try to play their own game and win despite the odds against the league leaders. It’s not only a good test for the system they have, it’s the best test for the players within it. Can you perform these duties under the toughest conditions? Can you execute at the level required to pass through the Sacramento Republic? All good questions. 

To do that, the Rowdies will need a player previously mentioned in this article to step up and play lights out to come away with three points: Jordan Doherty. He’s going to be a lynchpin in this game with one of the early MVP candidates playing as an attacking midfielder for SacRepublic, that being Luis Felipe Fernandes. 

Yes, another year and another Brazilian-American Fernandes is killing it in the USL. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay fans, this will only serve to remind them that Leo is out with an Achilles injury. That leaves only Luis Felipe to be the ball-carrying midfielder facilitating attack after attack. 

Forrest Lasso and Freddy Kleemann are also likely to have their hands full containing Juan Sebastian Herrera up top, who will be looking to facilitate for both Fernandes and the aforementioned Cicerone. He can act as a backboard for players to use or to set up to take shots himself. Cicerone, meanwhile, has found a true home as a slightly deeper attacker, coming up to the box to take shots and to interact with Herrera as the target. 

Kleemann and Antley will need to sort out Cicerone, likely with the help of Doherty, to prevent him from having the time necessary to get into good shooting positions. At the very least, they’ll need to track him very well to make sure his runs to get on the end of passes do not work out. Both Republic fullbacks will also want to get in on the action, with Jack Gurr the more likely of the two to get forward. Between Gurr, Fernandes, and their supporting cast, the strikers are in a good vein of form and will likely have more than a few chances to go up in this one. 

Score Predictions from the RBLR Rowdies Podcast:

Carlos Rueda: 2-1 Rowdies

James Knowles: 1-1 Draw

Yurika Wheeler: 2-1 Rowdies

Special Guest: 3-1 Rowdies from Charles Gallagher (@GallagherLaw)