Jacob Waguespack: A Year Better or Year Older?

The Tampa Bay Rays are no strangers to reinventing pitchers, and RHP Jacob Waguespack might be their next reclamation project. After an injury-plagued 2024 season, the 31-year-old right-hander is aiming to bring his unique arsenal back to form in a crowded Rays pitching staff with many starting pitching and bulk options.

Erik Neander, Rays’ President of Baseball Operations, has a firm belief in a bounceback season for Waguespack: “he lost a lot of time, but [we] have confidence about his health moving forward…. he’s someone that can come in and compete for a role that gives us length, compete for a role out of the ‘pen.” 

The real question for the Rays: Is Waguespack going to be one year older, or one year better? 

What He Throws:

Waguespack’s arsenal includes a four-seam fastball (FF), cutter (FC), curveball (CU), and changeup (CH). His uniqueness stems from several distinct attributes: his delivery (notably his initial setup, arm action, and lat engagement), his arm slot, and the outlier cut-ride shape of his fastball. Despite being a pronator—meaning he gets behind the ball more—he generates perceived cut through a unique twist in his wrist at release.

Picture of his slot:

Close-up of hand at release

This capability to generate cut-carry as a pronator is similar to Rays’ pitchers Colin Poche and Taj Bradley. Poche has a different grip than Waguespack on his FA but achieves a similar wrist orientation and outlier slot/arm angle.

Picture of Poche’s wrist at release: 

The Cons:

There are a couple of issues fielding Waguespack on the roster: he has a long injury history, has historically poor command/zone rates, and might not get his desired playing time on a roster carrying a surplus of bulk guys.

Although predicting future injuries is a fiasco, previous injuries often work as a predictor of future injuries. Besides the recent rotator cuff and back injury last year, Waguespack had a shoulder strain in June 2019 and a back strain in September 2020. The injuries in 2019 and 2020 certainly indicated the possibility that he could re-injury these body parts, and in 2024, he did. Management of these two body parts and potentially changing the delivery could kept Jacob healthier (but it could cost his uniqueness).

Looking at historical zone rates, Waguespack has below-average zone rates on every pitch except for his FC. The league averages for FF, FC, CU, and CH are 55.4%, 51.6%, 43.7%, and 39% respectively. Waguespack’s FF had a 49% in-zone, 55.1% on the FC, and ~30% on the CU and CH. Although a small sample size, he doesn’t zone his pitches well except for the FC.

The Rays have plenty of SP options for next year, creating competition for meaningful innings. Even if Waguespack does get a job out of Spring Training, I think his contributions will be limited due to this plethora of options. I’m going to consider his fit on the roster later in this article.

The Pros:

There are quite a few benefits in carrying Jacob Waguespack that we can look at: he has one option year left, outlier pitch attributes, strong recent results, and historically above average whiffs.

Waguespack’s option gives the Rays the ability to stash him in AAA and call him up when needed. This flexibility allows for Waguespack to work on his development at AAA or provide versatility to the MLB roster.

His pitch attributes (the unique ball flight physics, release point/arm angle, and body orientation) lead to a different look against all hitters. Pitchers from this slot (60 to 75-degree slot) tend to succeed versus the opposite-handedness (RHP v. LHB since 2020): .303 wOBA. Waguespack comes from a 70-degree arm angle at his 6’6’’ height and a 6.4 ft release height.

Some similar pitchers to Waguespack are Chris Flexen and Bradley Blalock. Flexen has a similar arm angle to Waguespack, and Blalock has a similar release height and side to Waguespack. These pitchers also get to these outlier slots by orienting their releases through trunk tilt and lat engagement. These pitchers also get to their slots and release heights in very different ways than Waguespack. 

Waguespack gets to his release height differently than the other pitchers because it’s a combination of his height and opening his knee early, using it as a blocker in his delivery.

Body Orientations of Flexen and Blalock at Release:

Waguespack also thrived as a closer and high-leverage RP in Japan; he adapts to either SP or RP constraints. 

Waguespack had mixed success in the NPB and historically high whiffs at the MLB level (often a good predictor of effectiveness). In his two years in the NPB, he had 116.1 IPs and a 29% K. He didn’t fair too well in his second year ERA-wise, but the Rays were betting on his shapes, potential length, and outlier qualities, and not his results.

He had a small sample size in ‘24, but in it, he had over 30% whiff in his arsenal with the highest whiff being his FC at a 44.4% whiff. This continues his trend of strong secondary whiffs in ‘20 and a strong FF whiff in ‘19.

Changes for Jacob Waguespack:

It’s important to note that Waguespack has been training with the analytically driven and dynamic team at Tread Athletics to improve his performance and recover from his injuries.

I wanted to analyze his MLB Max velocity and his ‘24 max velo to analyze how his body reaches end ranges of motion under in-game stressors; in layman’s terms: how does his body move best when pitching in MLB?

I do want to note that I’m looking more for differences than making changes. The situations are much different and he’s five years older in the second clip. The camera angles are also significantly different.

Predicting injuries are nearly impossible, and I could be wrong about certain aspects of his injuries. I will do my best.

96.4 in ‘19 (L) v. 95.4 in ‘24 (R):

Here are some differences in his mechanics:

  • Peak Leg Lift: Higher peak leg lift in ‘19
  • Sinks deeper into the ground in ‘19, taller in ‘24
  • Release/Lat Engagement: more lateral side bend in ‘24

I hypothesize that Waguespack’s injuries are workload-related and potentially stem from how he orients his body to get into unique shapes. 

Pitch Design Changes:

I’d add a Death Ball (DB) and a 1-Seam (1S) or Splinker. 

I’d keep the current CU for called strikes and use the DB as another whiff pitch — I’ll get into specific counts later — as DBs are platoon-neutral and natural to Waguespack’s slot and bias. 

The Rays can keep both shapes by having a spiked grip for the DB to differentiate the DB from the CU. Waguespack has CUs with similar shapes to the DB in years past. 

A DB has a couple of requirements for its shape: less than -5 HB, over 80 mph, and a -10 VAA. 

His CU is already 77 mph / -11 VAA / -5 HB. The main thing for Waguespack is getting the DB over 80 mph and in-zone; here’s my ideal shape for him: 81 mph / -5 iVB / -4 HB.

Here’s a look at a DB he’s thrown before:

The reason for having the 1S or Splinker is having another IZ pitch v. RHBs that doesn’t blend with the CH and with an emphasis on creating weak contact. 

When he’s behind RHBs, they crush the FF to a .721 wOBA (small sample). The 1S should have 5 iVB and 5 HB off the FF; potential shape 93 mph / 12 iVB / 9 HB. The 1S works due to his slot and pronation bias — it kicks the axis of the pitch down; the Splinker could work because of his ability to kill spin and his large hand size.

1S grip (Tate)

Splinker grip (Skenes)

Before I get into count specific changes, here are some general usage changes: getting away from as much FF v. LHBs and more CH and death ball use.

Here are some specific count changes I’d implement v. RHBs: Although a super small sample, for 0-0 counts I’d throw the CU early for called strikes. When higher slot pitchers throw bigger breaking pitches and zone them, batters give up on these pitches and assume they’ll be waste pitches. I’d supplement the FC because it got crushed last year in these counts.

When RHBs are ahead of Waguespack, his FF either gets high whiff or high damage, and these counts become use cases for the DB which generates whiffs or weak contact. When RHBs are behind: he got a bit unlucky on the FC results, but I like his current use in these counts.

Here are some count changes against LHBs: when he’s 0-0, I’d leverage more of his secondaries, primarily his FC/CH. This count would be interesting to leverage the new DB shape as well.

When LHBs are ahead: I’d use more secondaries. I like the FF, but higher FF use v. opposite-handed hitters is asking for damage against it.

When he’s behind LHBs: I’d use more CH. This count has a super small sample, and, in general, Waguespack has a small sample size last year.

Here are some insights on his locations: he is strong at locating the FF and FC within the catcher’s targets. The main target change I’d make is to have a higher CH set-up to maximize his CH’s natural miss (specific set-up being over the right-handed batter’s box.

How does Waguespack fit?

The Rays have more depth than anyone in the league in their rotation. Although some of their SPs are young or recovering from injuries (a development year or two from being full strength), the Rays’ unique, quality depth ensures Waguespack a chance to contribute. Rays have a clearer 5-man rotation: Zack Littell, Shane McClanahan, Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz, and Taj Bradley.

I would slot Waguespack in as the current 5 or 6 SP and as the definite bulk guy for the pen. I anticipate he starts early as Shane McClanahan recovers from his TJS and could be limited early in the season.

Drew Rasmussen is on the fringes of being an SP, not because of quality, but because of his 2 and ½ Tommy John surgeries (TJS). 

Taj Bradley is the current 5th SP but had a ton of blow-up starts last year, and many analysts think his upside is limited by his lack of a true out pitch. 

Boyle and Vasil have various issues limiting their upside — Boyle with severe command issues; Vasil with average stuff and poor results in the minors.

I could see Waguespack getting 70-100 IPs this year due to previous workloads and more clear run-way. I think his whiffs will continue to stabilize throughout the next year and think that he’ll have above-average results: ~3.5 ERA but with high strikeouts and walks. I think he’s better used on the team as opposed to being a trade piece because of his options, versatility, and depth for protecting the other rostered SPs.

Waguespack is an outlier in that no other pitchers in baseball throw nearly the same as him. For the IPs consideration, Waguespack averaged ~70 IPs per year up until 2023. Recent injuries have limited his contributions. It’s hard to make recommendations because Waguespack has small samples due to injuries and playing in foreign leagues. I can’t trust too much of the previous statcast data because he has transformed quite a bit as a pitcher. Jacob Waguespack looks to rebound from a lost 2024 season and meaningfully contribute to the Rays’ 2025 efforts.