While it wasn’t nearly the victory fans envisioned or what the team necessarily hoped for, the team got the job done in what has become (for better or worse) a signature Todd Bowles-era win & finished their regular season with a 27-19 victory over the New Orleans Saints. .

The Buccaneers secured their playoff berth with their 10th win of the season, marking just the 10th time in their 49-year history they’ve reached double-digit victories.

This year also extended their playoff streak to five consecutive appearances, the longest in franchise history.

Additionally, they claimed the NFC South crown for the fourth straight year—a remarkable achievement considering they had never won back-to-back division titles before this run. In the grand scheme of things, this season stands out as one of the best regular seasons in the tumultuous history of the Buccaneers.

Key Performances

Baker Mayfield’s performance might not have jumped off the stat sheet, but he carried the team on his back during the final two drives of the game. Both scoring drives came in the fourth quarter, with the first beginning late in the third. That initial drive was riddled with adversity, including four penalties, one of which was an unsportsmanlike conduct call on Jalen McMillan for what officials interpreted as him mimicking the use of imaginary weapons. However, Mayfield rose to the occasion on the very next play. Rolling to his right to evade pressure, he unleashed what could easily be considered the throw of the year: a frozen rope to the front pylon for McMillan on the scramble drill, a pass that traveled nearly 40 yards in the air.

The next drive, Mayfield would convert a third and fourteen deep in his own territory, running for 28 yards on another impressive off-schedule play, before throwing a checkdown to Bucky Irving as he was being sacked in the red zone. While the pass traveled backwards, his consistent ability to extend plays, make impressive throws on the run,  and rip long scrambles illustrates that Mayfield has turned into an elite improviser. 

He finished with 221 yards, a touchdown, an interception that was batted at the line, and 68 yards on the ground, which is a career high.

He also finished with 378 yards rushing on the year, by far a career high and the second most QB rushing yards in single season Bucs history behind Steve Young’s 1986 season. He is also one of four QBs in NFL history with 4000+ yards, 40+ touchdowns, and a completion percentage above 70%, joining Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Joe Burrow. Had his receiving core stayed healthy or if he hadn’t led the league in interceptions, he very well could’ve broken Tom Brady’s franchise records for touchdowns and yards. 

Bucky Irving toted the rock 19 times for 89 yards, though he struggled in the pass game, only bringing in 2 of his 5 targets for -2 yards. He finished his impressive rookie season with another bellcow game, logging 19/21 carries by running backs. In fact, he logged 48 snaps to Rachaad White’s 18 and Sean Tucker’s 5.

The near absence of Rachaad White was felt in this game, as the extra dimension he brings as an extra blocker and receiver out of the backfield was sorely missed. Whether he has been benched for the fumble against the Cowboys or for a lack of efficiency, it seems clear that White needs to see the field on a more consistent basis.

Jalen McMillan put up five catches for 74 yards and a touchdown to put the cherry on top of a great five week stretch to finish his rookie year. His 8 touchdowns are the third most by a rookie receiver in Bucs history, and he is tied for fourth among all rookie touchdowns in Bucs history with Bucky Irving. His increased usage in the absence of both Godwin and Otton has been vital in their late season run to the playoffs. Though he nearly cost them the game by *allegedly* firing a finger gun, he made up for it on the next play with an impressive toe tap touchdown, and mere seconds later, the in-stadium cannons fired off to celebrate.

Mike Evans finally managed to tie Jerry Rice’s record for consecutive 1000 yard seasons with his 11th. While he previously held the record for most consecutive 1000 yard seasons to start a career, this latest addition to the resume ensures his first ballot Hall of Fame status.

This year he caught a career high 67% of his targets, up 9% from last season, and he nearly matched his league leading touchdown total with three fewer games. Evans was central to the game plan against New Orleans, with Liam Coen force feeding him the ball, but his 14 targets are somehow only tied for 10th most in his career. As a matter of fact, I would venture to say the determination to reach the record probably cost the Bucs a bigger margin of victory, but you simply can’t ask for a better sports moment to end that game.

Todd Bowles finishes his third season as Buccaneers head coach at 10-7, his second best record in his career (his first season in New York netted a 10-6 season). Over his tenure they have improved by a victory every season, and they managed their highest point differential since Bowles took over. While the defense was middle of the road in yards and points (18th and 16th respectively), and they allowed the second most points of the Bowles era, quite a bit can be chalked up to injuries. 

Diagnosing the Defense

Of players that logged at least ten defensive snaps on the year, 16 missed at least 1 game, totaling 84 games missed, with ten of these players playing significant snaps at the time of injury: 

  • Jamel Dean 5
  • KJ Britt 3
  • SirVocea Dennis 13
  • Greg Gaines 2
  • Bryce Hall 16
  • Calijah Kancey 5
  • Mike Edwards 2
  • Logan Hall 1
  • Christian Izien 3
  • JJ Russell 1
  • Tykee Smith 4
  • Vita Vea 1
  • Markees Watts 9
  • Jordan Whitehead 5
  • Antoine Winfield 8
  • Earnest Brown IV 6

These numbers obviously mean nothing without context, so I looked at the same splits and categories for the Washington Commanders who have a similar amount of success in terms of record, and it’s who the Bucs face in the Wild Card game Sunday. Of players who played at least ten defensive snaps this season, the Commanders missed… 36 games.

With the injuries and lack of talent at the two most important defensive position groups in the modern NFL, it’s no wonder they’ve stunk. Bowles’ system is meant to bring constant pressure to the quarterback and force errant throws in zone coverage. When the defense isn’t getting pressure even when blitzing, the issues compound. Not only do you not have enough bodies in coverage, you’re not getting QB hits and pressures to make it worth it.

Wild Card Preview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the Washington Commanders at 8:00 at home in the Wild Card round, a Week 1 rematch as well as a rematch of the 2020 Wild Card.

The Bucs have struggled in primetime this season, losing all four of their evening games. Their last primetime victory came in the Wild Card round at home against the Eagles. However, the Commanders are starting rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, and history isn’t on his side – rookie QBs are just 19-38 in playoff history.

Both offenses appear well-suited to exploit the defenses they’ll face. The Commanders’ defense has allowed 100 or more rushing yards in all but four games this season, including seven games of 150+ yards. While they’ve only given up over 300 passing yards to two teams – the Ravens and Bengals – their struggles against the run could play right into Tampa Bay’s hands.

The Commanders rank near the bottom of the league against gap run schemes, allowing a staggering 7.9 yards per carry on Power runs. This bodes well for the Buccaneers, who rank among the league’s best in Power running efficiency, averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Notably, Washington has surrendered the third-most rushing yards in the league this season, trailing only New Orleans and Carolina.

In the passing game, Washington ranks third in yards allowed, but they’ve struggled to force turnovers and have given up slightly more points than Tampa Bay over the course of the season.

Both teams have evolved since their Week 1 matchup. The Bucs’ defense, which limited Daniels to 184 passing yards in the season opener, looks markedly different now. Conversely, Daniels, who recorded his second lowest passing total of the season in that game, has grown into a formidable threat. His 88 rushing yards in Week 1 were his second-highest total of the year.

Daniels has excelled against the blitz this season, despite ranking 30th in sacks taken under pressure. No quarterback has run for more yards against the Buccaneers this season than Daniels, and Tampa Bay’s struggles against scrambling QBs – allowing a 65% success rate, third-worst in the league – could be a key factor.

One bright spot for the Bucs is that Antoine Winfield Jr., fresh off of missing his eighth game this year, is expected to return for the Wild Card matchup, a welcome face that should have a major impact on this game as well.

Key Matchup

Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore have played some entertaining games against each other over the years, including multiple fights, ejections, taunting fouls, and otherwise nasty behavior. According to PFF, Lattimore has held Evans to 15 catches for 306 yards over their 12 regular season matchups, contesting 42% of targets thrown to Evans, significantly higher than the 16% contested target rate for Evans’ career.

Evans has drawn 55 pass interference penalties in his 11 years, second only to Deandre Hopkins over that stretch (56). Lattimore has been called for PI 21 times since 2017, third most in that stretch. Get your popcorn out because it could get messy early.

Prediction

This game should come down to the last play. Eight Bucs games this year have been decided by a score or less, while the Commanders have 12 such games.

They’ve both played in some of the craziest games and endings all year, with both needing OT against the Falcons.

Buckle in for a wild fourth quarter between two gunslinging quarterbacks, and two defenses with major holes. Whoever has the ball last will probably win. I am taking the Bucs 35-33 in a nailbiter.