RBLR Rays Roundtable #5 – Recent Headlines, a Dog, and an Extension Idea
There has been some national media attention surrounding the team lately, but the Rays have made it clear they’re focused on their performance on the field. We take a look at some key performers from 2024 and how those players could contribute in 2025 and beyond.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Beating the “full of question marks” allegations
ESPN recently stated in a piece that the Rays bullpen is “full of question marks,” but that is fundamentally incorrect. The Rays’ bullpen essentially returns its entire group from last season, which finished 5th in FIP (3.43) post all-star break. Pete Fairbanks is the most well-known returnee fresh off a 3.50 FIP season, and he is bound to have another big season after boasting a 126 Stuff+ in 2024. Additionally, Edwin Uceta, who was a massive breakout star for the Rays last season, posted an unbelievable 30.8 K-BB% and 1.7 fWAR.
I suppose you could say the lone question mark for this bullpen would be the lack of left-handed pitching. Amongst the group, I’d call Garrett Cleavinger the lone established major league left-handed pitcher on the roster, but Mason Montgomery also stepped up in an immense way. Wielding a 98-100 MPH fastball that graded out at 119 Stuff+, Montgomery produced at a high level to the tune of 32.4 K-BB% and 1.20 FIP.
In my opinion, the Rays’ most interesting addition to the bullpen this offseason was Eric Orze. Acquired from the Mets on November 19th for center fielder Jose Siri, Orze has produced at a very high level thus far in spring training, albeit a small sample size. He owns a 40.0 K-BB% across his first four appearances this spring. Orze throws a rising fastball, generating 0.8 inches less drop than other fastballs with a similar velocity and release point. His changeup drops 5.0 inches more than others thrown at a similar velocity and release point. I cannot comprehend how anyone can doubt this group. Tremendous depth, plenty of established major leaguers, and lots of high-ceiling arms that will raise the potential of this group.
Sandy (@SandyAndTheRays) : On-field success shouldn’t be overlooked
While disappointing, it’s hard to say anyone was truly surprised when the Rays’ stadium deal fell through last week. Frankly, I’m tired of off-the-field storylines overshadowing a team that has consistently been talented and deserving of more respect. The players and fans deserve better.
Despite operating with limited resources, the Rays have built a reputation for success — something their low-attendance counterparts, like the Marlins and Athletics, haven’t been able to replicate. They may not have the storied history of teams like the Yankees or Dodgers, and they have yet to win a World Series, but they’ve been a team to watch out for in recent years. Aside from last season and the potential rebuilding years ahead, the Rays have often been seen as “sneakily good,” with few people outside of Rays fandom fully comprehending why. Over the past six seasons, they’ve made the playoffs five times and won the division twice. It’s no wonder why Kevin Cash was named AL League Manager of the Year in 2020 and 2021 and is currently the longest-tenured active MLB manager.
Yet, because of their stadium situation and location, the Rays are often misunderstood or even dismissed as a laughingstock. In reality, they’ve been an exciting team that keeps the AL East competitive year after year. Now, they deserve ownership just as committed to sustaining that success — right in Tampa Bay.
Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : What could a Ryan Pepiot extension look like?
Pre-arbitration deals are the lifeblood of mid-market and small-market MLB teams. They are often centered around players with both a high ceiling and a high floor. The Rays have a long history with pre-arbitration deals dating back to Evan Longoria’s 2008 6-year $17.5M extension. With Wander Franco’s contract potentially still on the books depending on how his trial goes, the Rays might be unwilling to swing big and spend on a Junior Caminero pre-arb deal for now. However, the Rays could look at extending one of their young starting pitchers now that Jeffrey Springs’ contract is no longer on the payroll. Taj Bradley may have a high ceiling, but he will also enter free agency at 27 years-old and could be more challenging to convince to stay than Ryan Pepiot.
Pepiot is perfect for a pre-arb contract extension; it would be an arbitration buy-out as he is set for arbitration in 2026. Pepiot is already 27 years-old going into 2025 and won’t be a free agent until his age 31 season. The Rays could overpay for three years of arb-control to possibly get what would be the final years of Pepiot’s prime (age 32 and 33 seasons).
Pepiot has a great base as his 108 Stuff+ fastball was tied for second best among qualified starters in 2024 (min. 100 IP). At 109 Stuff+, his changeup was graded as the 10th best among starters last year, while also possessing an above average cutter and slider (102 and 101 Stuff+ respectively) to go along with an average curveball. Pepiot’s overall stuff graded out as tied for 13th best in baseball – among the players he was tied with is Tyler Glasnow. Pepiot sat at tied for 24th in overall Pitching+, which accounts for location and stuff, was 108.
Pepiot was an above average starter in his first full season in the majors; he could have been worth roughly 2.3 WAR over 32 starts. There is reason to assume that with continued progression in his control, he looks like a pitcher who will post 2-4 WAR seasons throughout his prime, with potentially a 4-5 WAR peak season. Given his age and production, Cristopher Sanchez could serve as a model for what a potential Pepiot extension could look like. I’d consider giving Pepiot three years guaranteed at $5.5M each, and two additional years of club options at $12M and $13M. The total possible value would be $41.5M over six years. While it is a risky investment for a player with only one full season starting, it could be a worthwhile investment if Pepiot continues to refine his control and maintain his great arsenal.
Seth Hibel (@sethhibel10) : The Year of the Dog
Brandon Lowe is arguably the most pivotal piece of the entire Rays’ lineup. For a team that struggled mightily in scoring runs last year, it was never at the fault of Lowe. His 2024 campaign saw him hit 21 HR with a 123 wRC+, including .302/.354/.616/.970 and 40 RBI with RISP.
The question is always about whether Lowe can stay on the field as he played in only 107 games last season. The last time he played more than 70% of a season was 2021, when he played in 149 games. If he can eclipse 140 games this season, look for his numbers to be much closer to 2021 (where he had an .863 OPS, 39 HR, and 99 RBI), especially because the Steinbrenner Field dimensions mimic that of Yankee Stadium. I am only concerned with offensive production for this Rays team, and Brandon certainly doesn’t lack in that.
Lowe has also improved in the field over the years to become an average-to-slightly-above-average second baseman. In 2023, Lowe’s OAA was +3, and then it was an even 0 in 2024, a long way from his worst in 2021 at -8. He provides great value at the plate and on the field.
The most important thing remains keeping Lowe in the lineup. That should be much easier now with a deep set of players that can play second base, taking a load off of Lowe in the field in efforts to keep him healthy and playing. This could be the year Lowe finally stays healthy and can be the on-field leader the Rays need.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
