Bucs Look to Bounce Back on the Road

The Bucs suffered a disappointing defeat last weekend at home against the Patriots. They gave up four back-breaking plays of 50+ yards, three of which went for touchdowns. That’s the real story of the game. The defense had a fantastic day, marred by the four flukey outlier plays.

The Patriots are a very good team. Looking at the rest of their schedule, there’s a good chance they end up being the top seed in the AFC come playoff time, and it will be a tremendous quick turnaround for Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye. The Bucs ultimately had a chance (albeit slim, given onside kick success rates) to win this game. 

The last time the Bucs gave up three 50+ yard scores in the same game, it was Neal Anderson on the ground, and Ron Morris and Wendell Davis catching passes from Mike Tomczak (who went 6/7 for 156 yards and 3 touchdowns, all in the fourth quarter).

The Patriots 3 50+ yard touchdowns match their total over their last 47 games combined, including one this year against New Orleans and none last season. The Bucs had already given up two this season, and allowed none last year. 

But it’s not as though the defense had a bad game. The Patriots had the worst rushing success rate of any team running the ball in week 10, and the highest stuff rate (rushes of 0 yards or fewer) at 33.3%. In fact, outside the two long touchdown runs, TreVeyon Henderson was limited to just 23 yards on 12 carries.

Drake Maye was pressured 47% (!!!) of the time, and completed just 31% (!!!) of his passes when pressured, but still averaged 12.8 (!!!) yards per attempt.

The Bucs had higher offensive and defensive success rates, higher portions of drives ending in scores, won the turnover battle, the third down conversion battle, and the time of possession. And yet the only difference score wise is settling for a field goal in the second quarter and missing on the 2 point conversion. And they still had a chance in the end due to what could have been a game saving interception for Tykee Smith.

The defensive lapses will overshadow the good, by a lot. While one could argue that a missed holding call on the first long rushing touchdown cost the Bucs defense points, they fit the run poorly regardless, and Antoine Winfield Jr. tries to be the hero on the second rushing touchdown, going for the tackle rather than doing his duty as the outside force/contain defender. Then of course, Zyon McCollum gets beat deep and BAD by Mack Hollins, on a great throw by Drake Maye with a 350-pound lineman an inch from his facemask, as he did on the Kyle Williams touchdown as well.

Offensively they only had one truly costly mistake, when Sterling Shepard committed a fairly obvious pass interference on a mesh concept, when he ran straight through and blindsided a linebacker, costing the Bucs a 4th down conversion that would have set them up for a touchdown rather than a punt.

The truth is the Bucs should not have been anywhere near winning this game, and yet they were. They still had a shot, however slim, at the end of regulation. This was an ugly loss that could have and should have been a whole lot uglier. 

The offense didn’t have a particularly bad game. While obviously you hope for better than 5 for 13 on third down, Baker Mayfield had his highest yardage total since week 5 and matched his season high of 3 touchdowns, the most he’s had in a game since week 1. The rushing attack was about as good as you can ask for against the best rushing defense in the league, logging the fourth highest total the Patriots have given up all year, and outscored the Patriots previous 18 points per game allowed.

Emeka Egbuka re-emerged within the offense with 115 yards and a score, launching himself back to ninth in the league in yards and sole possession of first in touchdowns by a rookie, while Tez Johnson doubled his total touchdowns with another two in this game.

With Luke Goedeke back, the offensive line returned back to (somewhat) normal, with Baker only being pressured on 20 snaps, one of the lowest rates all year, and against a formidable front seven.

All things considered, this was a winnable game. This felt like the most winnable of their three toughest remaining matchups, but losing a few games at this point in the season is not the end of the world, especially with the Panthers and Falcons losing their games. 

This is not the end of the world. The Bucs are 6-3, a whole lot better than most analysts had them at this point. They won some coinflip games early in the year, and naturally they’ll lose a few coinflip games (which I would argue they’ve done twice now). And keep in mind that they are still not fully healthy. When they get some key playmakers back, they’ll be contenders, no doubt.

The Bills present another challenge for Tampa Bay this week, but they’ve had their fair share of struggles as well, dropping three of their last five, including against the (3-6) Atlanta Falcons and the (3-7) Dolphins, both of which they lost by double digits. Why?

The Bills are one of the worst rush defenses in the league. They rank 28th in total rush yards allowed (the four teams worse than them are a combined 11-28). They’ve given up 14 touchdowns, tied for 31st with the New York Football Giants and one touchdown from tying the Tennessee Titans for league-worst. They’re tied for last in the league with the Giants in yards per attempt on the ground, giving up 5.5 yards per carry.

They’re passing defense looks elite by the counting stats, giving up just 170 yards passing and one touchdown per game. But they’re only seeing about 27 passing attempts in the league, fourth from the bottom. Of course, when you can’t be stopped on the ground, why throw? It helps when you’ve played the Jets (54 yards), Dolphins (146 yards, 173 yards), Saints (109 yards), and Panthers (130 yards). 

While the Bills won all but one of those games, they also allowed 100+ rushing yards in all of those games, including 189 yards for the Saints and 197 for the Dolphins. They’ve given up 100+ rushing yards in every game except for the Patriots, back when Rhamondre Stevenson was the healthy bellcow. 

The PFF grades (however reliable you may consider them) support this theory as well. The Bills rank 27th in rush defense and t-32nd in tackling by their metrics, and just 24th in pass coverage. They don’t get a ton of interceptions either, just six on the season, but they still rank in the top half of the league in takeaways due to their fumbles forced.

On the other hand, their pass rush has been one of the very best. They’re just a sack behind the Bucs, with 25 on the season, but they’ve faced so few pass attempts that their defense is fifth in sack percentage (sacks divided by dropbacks), and they’re fourth in pressure rate, fifth in knockdown percentage (QB hits divided by dropbacks), and hurry percentage. They’re also ranked 28th in blitz rate, relying on their four down linemen including DE Joey Bosa and DE Greg Rosseau, though they’ve been without DT Ed Oliver since week 3.

On the offensive side of the ball, Josh Allen has done all the things we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from him, but they’ve struggled without a true WR1. Khalil Shakir has certainly stepped up in the last few weeks, but when healthy, their leading receiver has been Dalton Kincaid. Without Kincaid, they had their worst game of the year offensively, scoring just 14 points, and throwing for 157 yards against the Atlanta Falcons.

But it’s important to remember that Josh Allen has torched the Bucs both times they played, topping 300 yards passing, 3 total touchdowns, and a completion percentage over 66.7%. While the Bucs managed to walk it off in overtime thanks to Tom Brady and Breshad Perriman back in 2021, the Bucs floundered the last time these teams met. 

James Cook has been a bright spot, ranking second in the league in yards, 4th in success rate (trailing 3rd place Josh Allen), and he’s tied for third in yards per attempt. Their rushing attack has been phenomenal, with the 14 touchdowns between Allen and Cook just one behind league leading Jonathan Taylor. 

But ultimately, this game will come down to Josh Allen. Which version of him shows up? Will we get the 15/26 180 yard, two touchdown, two interception, two fumble Josh Allen, when he played without Dalton Kincaid? Or will we get 23/26 273 yard, 3 total touchdowns Josh Allen who just beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead two weeks ago. 

I feel confident that the Bucs defense will improve to the mean, and be the top rush defense they ought to be. We’ve seen them struggle to contain explosive runs, but they’ve been elite against the run all year. They’ll face a tall task containing one of the most explosive rushing attacks in the NFL, but if the Bucs can help themselves, and play complementary football by jumping out to an early lead against a bad rushing defense, they may be able to help themselves write the Bills run game out of the game script. 

Offensively, they’ll once again have to contain one of the top pass rush units in the league for what feels like the 10th game in a row. They’ll still be down two starters, as LG Ben Bredeson went down after the first drive last week, and so they’ll have neither starting Guard, which ought to be rough for a team that’s relied so heavily on Gap run schemes (furthering the trend from last season). But they’ve got a nice matchup. Rachaad White has struggled to break off explosive runs, but Sean Tucker seems to have the physical traits to lead the backfield, as he did last week. 

While they’ll win the game on the ground, I wouldn’t be surprised if they came out throwing, something they found success with this past week, as Mayfield topped 50 yards on the opening drive and finished it off with an Emeka Egbuka score. 

If the Bucs come out hot, keep the defense off the field, win the turnover battle (as they’ve done in all but one game), keep the Bills out of third and short, and keep James Cook out of the box score, this game should go fairly well for Tampa Bay. After losing against the Patriots, they’ll look to bounce back on the road and move to 2-1 against the AFC East on the year.

Prediction: Bucs W, 27-21