RBLR Rays Roundtable – 4/27/26 – Rotation, Speed, & Power
This week’s breakdown examines the center field dilemma, arguing that Jonny DeLuca’s surging power and defensive consistency make him the clear choice over a struggling Cedric Mullins. Meanwhile, the focus shifts to High-A, where the Bowling Green Hot Rods are showcasing the most electric starting rotation in the organization’s farm system. Finally, we dive into the physics of Junior Caminero’s swing, illustrating how the young phenom is defying the traditional laws of bat speed and contact rates.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Time for DeLuca?
With the lack of productivity coming from Cedric Mullins, the Rays should strongly consider ramping up Jonny DeLuca’s playing time and allow him to compete for the full-time center field job.
DeLuca is 2nd to Chandler Simpson in outfielder fWAR leaders on the Rays, and leads the group in fWAR per 100 plate appearances. DeLuca has always been known for his speed and defense, but thanks to a 3 MPH average bat speed increase and a near triple of his fast swing rate, Jonny is posting career highs in power production. DeLuca’s .196 ISO marks a career high in his brief Major League career and isn’t sacrificing any contact in the process, as his 84.8% Z-Contact% lines up with career norms. A 120 wRC+ is always nice to see from Jonny, but his 1 OAA and 0.5 BsR show consistent and sustainable impact, and those numbers should grow larger if he’s given more opportunity.
Cedric Mullins came to Tampa Bay on a 1 year deal with a veteran pedigree and somebody who should be able to raise the floor for a group that experienced immense inconsistencies. Up to this point, Mullins has had me wishing Kam Misner was still in Tampa Bay. Cedric’s 29 wRC+ is the second-worst mark among qualified Major Leaguers this season. Defensively, Mullins has accumulated -1 OAA and -1.3 FanGraphs defensive value. His jumps are at by far the worst of his career (-1.2 feet above average), including his route’s that have generally been elite over the course of his career, are down at -2.4 feet above average.
I think the Rays could benefit greatly by seeing if DeLuca can handle the full-time center field role while shrinking the amount of Cedric Mullins we see.
Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : Hot Rods’ Rotation
Bowling Green currently has the most talented rotation in the Rays’ farm system, headlined by three legitimate prospects and one additional depth starter.
Anderson Brito is the highest ranked and has been the most stable of the group so far, producing a 3.72 ERA, 3.00 FIP, and 18.6% K-BB rate through three starts. He is older at 21, but he has legitimate stuff even if it comes with a laborious delivery, and if the command keeps improving, he could become one of the better starters in the system, shedding the current reliever risk he has as a 5’10 starter who throws 100. He also possesses what could be 3 above-average pitches, providing him a floor of a high-leverage reliever to a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter.
Trevor Harrison looked primed for a breakout in 2025, but a dip in strikeout rate and continued command issues led to more of a minor step back. After posting a 29.4% strikeout rate as an 18-year-old in A ball, that number fell to 22.7% across A and High-A. Still, the well-built 6-foot-4 starter finished with a 2.78 ERA and 3.48 FIP over 107 innings. His delivery remains one of the cleanest in the system, and his sturdy frame supports a fastball that can reach 98 mph. The pitch has an average shape, but enough ride to miss bats up in the zone. His mid-80s slider flashes above average, though the command of it still comes and goes, while his changeup remains fringe. Early in 2026, the strikeouts have returned at 28.1%, but the command has been rough with a 17.2% walk rate. He has also allowed home runs at a much higher rate than usual, resulting in a 5.93 ERA and 6.80 FIP through 13.2 innings. The home-run rate should regress, however, for him to truly break out and be the top 100 prospect some believe he can be (ESPN and Keith Law both have had him as honorable mentions/ just misses) his command has to improve. Harrison is the most stable starter of the 3 legitimate prospects in High A due to his frame and delivery, however if that is as a mid-rotation arm or an innings eater will depend on his continued development.
Joe Urbina made real progress in 2025 as a 19-year-old between A and High-A, especially with his walk rate dropping from 10.6% in 2024 to 7.9%. That command has not fully carried into 2026, where he sits at 10.9%. His early 5.91 ERA and 6.16 FIP are ugly, but some of that is tied to poor luck, including a 33% strand rate and .333 BABIP. Urbina’s stuff remains excellent. His fastball reaches 100 mph with passable shape, and his slider has plus potential while working more like a cutter. His curveball is usable, but his changeup still needs work. There is still reliever risk if the command does not return.
Gary Gill Hill is more of a post-hype depth arm at this point. His first 21 innings have been rough, with a 6.00 ERA and 6.44 FIP, but he still offers organizational depth as a potential back-end starter.
Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : Junior Caminero does bat speed better than anyone else
What does bat speed mean to you? Personally, I believe it is one of the most played out tropes in modern baseball analysis, that you can translate a player’s plate success to something as simple as just their bat speed. However, i believe there is *some* good that can come out of the metric that has led baseball fans astray for years. And the poster child for this is Junior Caminero.
The following 10 numbers are the strikeout rates for the top 10 leaders in statcast bat speed for the 2026 season; 30.7, 33.1, 38.6, 19.8, 32.7, 31.7, 26.1, 35.2, 30.2, and finally, 15.3.
What if I told you the guy with the lowest K% by over 4% also had the fastest swing in the league by .4 MPH? That’s the difference between normal “swing hard” guys and Junior Caminero. The relationship between swinging hard and K% is typically an inverse one, as if you’ve picked up a baseball bat you would understand that the harder to swing, the easier it is to miss, especially dealing with major league pitching.
But Caminero, being the generational offensive talent that he is, doesn’t follow that rule. He’s going to swing as hard as he can, harder than anyone else, whiff at a rate that’s above average in the sport, and strike out less than 83% of qualified hitters in the sport. So maybe it wasn’t simply playing at Steinbrenner Field that led to his all time season last year.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
