RBLR Rays Weekly Roundtable – 7/13/26 – Emerson To Rays
This week, the roundtable examines a big weekend for the farm system. While prospects were showcasing skills at the Futures Game, the Rays made a bunch of young men a bit richer to enter the organization. Who did we get, and who might get dealt?
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Is Blair The Best Pick?
The Rays just wrapped up an eventful draft that was headlined by the first-round selections of Grady Emerson and Taj Marchand, but their 2nd round pick Ben Blair is my personal favorite of the class. Blair is a 6’3 right-hander who spent all 3 years of his collegiate career pitching for Liberty University and hovered between an ERA of 3.5-3.6 in those three seasons.
Blair gets elite extension off the mound (6.9 FT) and throws from a very low release height (4.9 FT); think of Joe Ryan or even the Rays Casey Legumina from a release traits stand point. The weird release traits allow a 94 MPH fastball that gets 12 inches of iVB and 16 inches of HB to play up a lot more than you’d think that shape would be able to play at face value. Ben pairs a nice bridge strike throwing cutter (12 iVB -2 HB) with a sweeping breaking ball (3 iVB -17 HB) that projects to be his most present out pitch. Blair has a work-in-progress changeup that doesn’t have a particularly strong shape, so I do believe the number 1 priority for the Rays will be to try to tap into something a little better than what he currently has. Shapes aside, Blair’s best ability is certainly his advanced feel to throw strikes. He sported a 4.3% BB% this season and ran an 80th percentile strike% (65%).
This feels like a fun project for the Rays to try and tap into, and I believe if he’s able to tap into an offspeed shape, whether that be a splitter or changeup, he has the chance to be really special. His ability to throw strikes and feel for spin are already plus and should allow for a lot more innovation with his repertoire moving forward.
Yurika Wheeler (@yurikaRBLR) : Rays ‘Prep’aring The Future
After selecting SS Grady Emerson with the No. 2 overall selection, the Rays are leaving with a draft haul that paints the most detailed picture of who they wish for their franchise to be for the next ten years.
For a small-market organization such as the Rays, securing a foundational franchise player necessitates a longer-term vision with a high school prospect’s immense potential rather than opting for a college player who may arrive sooner but has a lower ceiling. Emerson represents perhaps the most promising prospect to bet on that potential within this year’s draft class.
The reigning Gatorade National Player of the Year and Golden Spikes Award semifinalist compiled a staggering .532/.648/1.013 slash line during his senior year at Fort Worth Christian. Scouts across the industry consider him one of the purest hitters in this draft class and quite possibly the best prospect overall.
Any discussion of this draft strategy is incomplete without addressing the financial aspect. Securing the second overall pick gifted the Rays the second largest draft bonus pool in baseball, totaling $19 million – surpassed only by the Pirates. The challenge in signing high school players is the leverage they hold: if the financial terms are not to their satisfaction, they can opt to attend their committed college program (Emerson, notably, had committed to Texas).
With millions at their disposal, the Rays had the flexibility to aggressively pursue high school talent, including SS Taj Marchand at pick number 33, knowing they could afford to buy these players out of their college commitments without disrupting the entire draft board.
The Rays have a penchant for acquiring a surplus of talented, athletic, high school shortstops, based on the simple rationale that shortstop is the most demanding position on the field.
If a young player possesses the actions, arm strength, and instincts to play shortstop at seventeen or eighteen, they can transition to second base, third base, or center field later in their careers as their bodies develop. Accumulating this kind of defensive versatility provides the front office with significant depth throughout the organization and substantial leverage for future trades.
By concentrating on prep players at the top of the draft, the Rays are strategically sequencing their next wave of talent to coincide with the current core’s increased salary obligations or upcoming free agency in the 2029-2031 window. Emerson and Marchand don’t need to be present-day solutions; they are the long-term blueprint.
Cory Ketchum (u/FLBoy19) : Which Prospects Could Get Dealt?
As we near the All-Star break the Rays sit 56-38 in a very wide open AL this year. They maintain a 3 game lead in the division and an 8 game lead over the final AL wild card spot. Barring a collapse, the team will likely return to the postseason for the first time since they were unceremoniously bounced out of the AL wild card round by the future World Series champion Texas Rangers.
With the postseason in mind, the question becomes what possible additions could be made to bolster the current squad, while maintaining a balance between short-term and long-term goals. The team is still in the midst of their retool that started 2 years ago. Over the next couple of weeks, I am going to cover prospects unlikely to be dealt, as well as prospects that could be utilized and potential returns.
To begin, I don’t see a world in which the Rays trade Theo Gillen. Theo is a top-10 prospect in baseball; those players don’t get moved unless it is for a +4 fWAR player with term. Furthermore, I don’t see the Rays trading Nathan Flewelling. Fresh off his Futures Game MVP award, Flewelling looks like the true answer at catcher, as the 19-year-old has clubbed 16 HRs with a .261/.394/.496 slash line, .399 wOBA, and a 26.3% SO rate against competition two years older.
Brody Hopkins would also make his way on this list. Even if his numbers are not what was expected, Hopkins still has top of the rotation stuff; he just needs to tighten his command. Tatin Gray (18 years old) and Cooper Flemming (19) have crushed A-ball pitching with sustainable BABIPs, SO rates, and walk rates to a tune of a 139 and 128 wRC+ with average competition being older.
Among higher-end prospects I believe Caden Bodine is about the maximum extent of prospect capital the Rays might be willing to deal. Bodine has shot through the minors to AA with a contact-heavy approach. Although he provides a possible long-term answer at catcher, his ceiling is more limited than Flewelling’s. Bodine is still unlikely to be dealt though. Without the use of the above players, a major industry-moving trade is unlikely to occur. Next week, prospects who could be dealt and what packages would make sense for players currently in MLB trade rumors will be touched on.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
