RBLR Rays Roundtable – 4/6/26 – After Three Series
The 2026 Rays are already defying expectations through a mix of elite reinforcements and unexpected individual leaps. While a revamped starting rotation battles to anchor a shaky defense, a returning ace is rewriting his own tactical playbook to maintain his dominance on the mound. Yet, the biggest spark in St. Pete might be the sudden, two-way emergence of a player who has traded rookie struggles for statistical brilliance. These early storylines suggest a team finding its identity not just through veteran stability, but through a total recalibration of its biggest question marks.
Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : Elite Arms, Leaky Gloves
The starting rotation received plenty of criticism last year, which was perfectly valid given the inconsistent nature that rotation had.
Tampa Bay put a lot of effort into solving this issue heading into 2026, only retaining the services of Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, and the early injury replacement Joe Boyle, and adding Steven Matz, Nick Martinez, and Shane McClanahan back from his injuries. This has paid off so far for the Rays, as the rotation has been the crown jewel of the much maligned run prevention unit thus far.
As a team, the Rays carry a 4.43 FIP, 3.96 SIERA, and a 12.7 K-BB%, all in the lower half of the league. As a rotation, the Rays carry a 3.23 FIP, 3.47 SIERA, and a 17.4% K-BB%, all in the top 10 in baseball. Keep in mind, they are doing this with a league worst -10 DRS and -7 OAA behind them, the worst DRS and the second worst OAA in baseball.
This Rays rotation is very good, and I still believe in the Rays pitching staff as an entire unit, once the defense figures it out (Ben Williamson was a gold glove finalist last year, and now has -2 DRS, the Rays should be able to prevent runs at a high level. And with a top 10 offense in baseball that shows signs of sustainable offense that isn’t too streaky, the Rays should be able to turn it around and score more than the other team at a high level for the rest of the season.
Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : Shane McClanahan’s Return by the Numbers
Shane McClanahan had gone two years and nearly nine months since his last MLB start. In his return to the mound, Shane no-hit the Brewers for 4 innings before giving up his first hit. In that short outing, he looked a lot like the version of himself from 33 months ago. His changeup, slider, and curveball were all within his career norms by pitch modeling, with the slider grading as firmly above average and the changeup still looking elite.
His fastball, though, showed some regression. Before his second UCL surgery, Mac’s fastball typically sat firmly above average for a starter by Stuff+ standards, usually in the 105 to 111 range, with 100 being MLB average. In this first start back, it graded out at 81. Fastballs, and really pitching as a whole, are graded on three main things: perceived velocity, deception, and shape. Mac’s fastball still worked against Milwaukee and did not allow a hit, but it averaged 1.4 mph less than it did in 2023, while also showing 3.4 more inches of vertical drop and 1.5 inches less arm-side run.
Like anything in April, the sample is small and that can cloud the numbers. Shane is still getting excellent extension, which helps his perceived velocity play a little better than the 95.4 mph he showed against the Brewers.
If the Rays are going to be good in 2026, it will have to come from a lot of places, but the foundation of the best Tampa Bay teams has always been pitching. Hopefully the fastball shape from this outing was just a one-game blip, and we see something closer to its old form even if the velocity does not fully return. Even without the excellent version of his fastball, McClanahan should still be able to work through lineups well enough to support something like a 3.50 ERA across the capped 120 innings the Rays seem likely to give him, largely because his secondary stuff still looks so good.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Simpson’s Defensive and Plate Discipline Refinement
Entering the 2026 season, I was kind of surprised that Simpson was nearly penciled into the Opening Day roster after a fairly dreadful rookie campaign, but he has really proven me wrong.
As of Sunday, April 5th, Chandler is 11th in the major leagues in on-base percentage as he has spiked his BB% to 9.4% (up 4.9% from last season). Chandler, in large part, has cut the rate at which he swings the bat significantly (-4.3%). By doing this, Simpson is trusting his ability to make contact at a 99th percentile rate, no matter the count, and forcing pitchers to make more pitches to him, rather than putting a low-value batted ball event in play early in the count.
Probably the biggest revelation of anything Rays this season has been Simpson’s improvement defensively. His jumps were always plus last season (.3 feet above average), but his routes to the baseball always held him back (-.7 feet below average). His -5 OAA last season put him in the 11th percentile among qualified fielders; he has made a jump into the 99th percentile (+2 OAA) on a more challenging diet of plays, according to Statcast (83% expected catch%).
If Simpson can land in the 85th percentile or better in on-base and keep the defensive productivity up, the Rays have easily a plus every day contributor on their hands.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
