The Trade-Off the Lightning Shouldn’t Make
For the last few days, a lot of Tampa Bay Lightning fans have spent time in their cubicles at the office not so much doing what they are paid to do, but envisioning themselves in the shoes of Lightning General Manager Julien BriseBois.
As soon as Detroit Red Wing star Dylan Larkin went public with his wish for a new home, a lot of people connected the dots between BriseBois and his former boss in Tampa, Steve Yzerman, who now runs the Red Wings.
Certainly, Yzerman and BriseBois are familiar with each other and the personnel on both teams. It absolutely wouldn’t be a stretch to see the two executives strike a deal, as they have done so in the past. However, reports came out on Monday that may have – but be careful using the word “absolutely” in this case – may have dampened the possibility of Larkin ever wearing a bolt on his chest.
It is being reported that Larkin has informed Yzerman that his wish is to play in either Florida (not the western part of the state), Minnesota, or Las Vegas.
Tampa Bay didn’t make the list, and perhaps that is fine.
As the desktop GMs have all realized, to land Larkin and the remaining (nearly) $45,000,000 through five years on his deal, the Lightning were going to have to pay a price.
A very steep price.
The Red Wing center is still in his 20s (for another few weeks), and is coming off a season in which he scored 34 times and finished with 67 points.
The obvious names that would intrigue Yzerman are the young group of talent that BriseBois has accumulated, led by the best player coming out of the respected Ontario Hockey League, Sam O’Reilly.
“He is so textbook about how he plays,” BriseBois gushed last month when discussing O’Reilly. “He’s got a really mature game.”
The first question for Lightning fans is: Are you willing to give up, potentially, 15 years of really good hockey from O’Reilly for five (ish) from Larkin?
I’m not.
That leads to the second question for the Bolts Nation: Which veteran piece of the core group are you willing to trade for Larkin? Because there is no way Yzerman is dealing Larkin to an Atlantic Division rival unless O’Reilly and/or one of the top Tampa Bay players is involved.
The name that keeps being brought up by Lightning fans is veteran center Brayden Point, who is very similar in a lot of ways to Larkin, but more productive. Or at least, he has been, historically.
“You look at (Point’s) metrics,” BriseBois said following this past season, “his burst (of speed) is still there. He’s fast. He’s ambitious. He’s driven. He’s competitive.
“He’s still young.”
Not only is Point essentially the same age as Larkin (four months older), he makes very similar money (Point has $36,000,000 remaining over four seasons on his contract.
Why Point is even being brought up by Tampa Bay fans is because he had a down season this year. For him.
Actually, that isn’t even true. He had a part of a down season.
“From December 9 through March 24,” BriseBois explained of Point’s play, “he had 35 points in 30 games. He was playing great.”
In totality, however, Point didn’t match his typical production.
He only had 18 goals, which matched his career low. That was the same number as in his rookie season nine years ago.
Point accumulated just 50 points in 63 games. So, in the remaining 28 games outside of his strong stretch of play, Point totaled just 15 points.
“You can learn from this,” Point said of his struggling season. “I’ve definitely learned some things in my game that I just need to get a little better at.”
Point spoke of how diligent he would be this off-season in working on “shooting in tight spaces.”
BriseBois said that a player of the caliber of Point is going to draw intense attention from every opponent.
“The other team is focusing on him,” BriseBois said. “They are trying to shut him down. Over the course of your career, you are going to have ebbs and flows, just like a team is going to have ebbs and flows within a season.”
It’s been interesting over the past week to see just how many people have dismissed the productive history of Point’s career.
Four times in his career, including three of the past four seasons, Point has tallied at least 82 points (three times over 90).
In the case of Larkin, he’s never had 80 points in a season, let alone 90.
Yes, Point has reached his totals while playing for a far more explosive offensive team. I get that. But a key reason as to why the Lightning score so much more than Detroit is because of Point.
In addition, there is something that raises concern when a star player (Larkin) wants to be traded out of his hometown team (he was born in Waterford, Michigan). It is more impressive for a guy to want to be part of the solution to struggles, as opposed to simply bailing when times really get tough.
As for BriseBois, he hasn’t lost any confidence in Point, regardless of his numbers this past season.
“I expect (Point) to have a really good season,” BriseBois said of 2026-27, “and be a key contributor for us going forward.”
