RBLR Rays Roundtable – 6/22/26
The Rays are in that part of the season where every game feels like a referendum on something. The lineup questions are getting louder, the trade retrospectives are getting more interesting, and somehow the promotional schedule is also part of the conversation. Welcome to mid-June.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Simpson In Decline
It’s no secret that Chandler Simpson entered the series versus Washington scuffling. You have probably heard the “He hasn’t stolen a base since May 11th” 100 times in the last 2 weeks, and you have probably noticed that he hasn’t been reaching base as often as he is running a .261 OBP and 44 wRC+ in that time frame. So what has gone wrong?
At his peak powers Simpson is among the most electrifying players in the sport and an extremely valuable offensive player. His .333 OBP and his 40% run-scoring rate when reaching safely up until May 11th are both healthy marks. As previously mentioned, the OBP has suffered a steep decline, so how come?
When you hear that someone’s flyball% has gone up 6%, you probably don’t think it’s too important, but for Chandler, it is. Simpson has mustered a .031 wOBA on flyballs this season, and in the process of hitting more flyballs, he has sacrificed 5% of his line drive%, a batted-ball outcome that is netting him a .633 wOBA.
Throughout the season, his swing decisions have been pretty poor (29.6% O-Swing / 60.3% Z-Swing%), limiting the floor he sets for himself by not walking very often (4.9%), so he is prone to these struggles more than others.
Once this group gets healthier, I think you certainly need to reevaluate this LF spot. Whether it’s reducing his role or going in a different direction internally or externally, it’s something that certainly needs to be pondered upon.
Carter Brantley (@ctbrantley12): Revisiting the Civale/Manzardo Trade
Rays received: Aaron Civale
Guardians Received: Kyle Manzardo
Winner: The Guardians (by a hair/still up for debate)
Evaluating trades can be a difficult proposition. Do you look at the trade straight up, in a sort of WAR vs. WAR way? Do you factor in other context and factors, because it’s a complicated endeavor? Or am I asking too many unanswerable questions?
This Kyle Manzardo-Aaron Civale trade is a great example of why it’s important to balance those 2 questions.
Because on the one hand, on its surface this is a fairly clear win for the Guardians. They got a potential everyday position player, while the Rays got a guy who they had to trade the following season due to underperformance.
On the other hand, the Rays would have nowhere to put Manzardo even if they had held onto him, and Jonathan Aranda has clearly been the superior choice assuming they had to choose between those 2 players as the future at first base.
Plus, Civale was dealt for a 22-year-old middle infielder, Gregory Barrios, a powerless glove-first guy who’s got a 60 wRC+ in AA this season.
Barrios may or may not make the majors, and if he doesn’t it makes this deal a fairly straightforward win for the Guardians.
Or does it? Maybe from Cleveland’s perspective, but the Rays’ decision to stick with Aranda has been fruitful, and starting Manzardo over Yandy Díaz would also be silly.
There’s an argument to be made that the Rays still could’ve gotten more for a decent prospect like Manzardo, which is still why I give a slight edge to Cleveland, but even so, it’s only slight. Manzardo was always going to be a bit more limited than people think due to his status as a first baseman only. Luckily for Cleveland, he’s hit enough to justify that spot and has flashed more pop than expected.
Overall, it’s a far less one-sided deal than it might seem if just taken at face value. The Guardians got an interesting, still developing first baseman to give their lineup a much needed jolt, and the Rays took a chance on a starting pitcher while giving a better player a clearer path to playing time.
Yurika Wheeler (@yurikaRBLR): Know Where Your Towel Is
The Rays finished 3-4 during the past seven games. Though, in looking at the record, it fails to express how the stretch actually felt. A mixture of jubilance and annoyance: a team that held its own against the best of the league but had no strength left to finish off opportunities when timely.
The week began with an 8-3 smashing of the Angels before the Rays ran into a buzzsaw in Los Angeles and dropped three consecutive one-run battles to the Dodgers. Back at Tropicana Field, the Rays got back on track, taking two of three versus Washington, highlighted by Jonny DeLuca’s game-winning home run Sunday.
The bright spot for California should not get lost in this wipeout. Three one-run defeats to the Dodgers (contenders for ‘best team in baseball’) say more about the competitive spirit than the stats.
On top of that, a conquering of the Nats who, bolstered by DeLuca back in the mix and Aranda back on fire, cap off a positive week rather than let it slip away.
The 4-3 loss on Saturday to Washington was the punch to the gut of the week. The Rays left 11 runners on base, and watching Junior Caminero get thrown out trying to advance on a ball that took a crazy hop off the dugout turn a game the Rays could’ve swept into a split series. It’s the perfect example of how situational hitting, smarts and instincts can ruin otherwise good baseball.
Bottom line: don’t panic. Tampa Bay has for the most part been among the league leaders on home turf and a mixed showing against a tough week of elite West Coast competition isn’t a cause for concern. Now it’s just a matter of fine-tuning the little things (advancing runners, game awareness, etc.) before the Royals come to town.
Sandy (@SandyAndTheRays): Trinkets Galore
If there’s any season when it’s painful not to be a local Rays fan, it’s this one. And I’m not talking about the roster or the talent on the field, though sitting second in the AL East at this stage isn’t exactly terrible. I’m talking specifically about the 2026 Rays promotional schedule.
When the Rays first unveiled their promotional schedule four months ago, I counted no fewer than five giveaway items I knew I’d eventually make bad decisions to acquire on eBay. This past weekend brought the jersey jacket giveaway, which I somehow managed to snag for $30. (I was convinced resale prices would be far more absurd after missing out on the light-up Trop replica.) And we’re not even close to being done with the must-have items: Longo Weekend alone features two giveaways (thankfully, I’ll actually be there for those games), and there’s still the Rays hockey jersey coming in September.
So if there’s any reason to be experiencing severe FOMO — besides living so far from the team in the first place — it’s the fact that I have to keep making questionable financial decisions in order to get my hands on some of the best giveaway items in baseball.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
