RBLR Rays Weekly Roundtable – 10/05/26 – ALDS vs Yankees
Game 1 is in the books, and the Rays not only had the roster to back up that effort – we had the crowd, too. Between Rasmussen’s lights-out effort on the mound to start the game and the Trop full of 40,000-plus fans ensuring Tampa Bay had the homefield advantage, this series got the start it needed.
Cory Ketchum (u/FLBoy19) : A Fun Ride In The ALDS
As we sit, the Rays lead the Yankees 1-0 in the ALDS. This is thanks to the phenomenal performance of Drew Rasmussen, who has twirled gem after gem against the Yankees (10 of 12 career starts have allowed fewer than 2 runs). Offensively, it was a mixed bag; however, the Rays still got 3 XBH hits, with Jonathan Aranda’s going over the fence and Richie Palacios missing a HR by a few feet. Regardless of Game 1, I always believed the series would go the distance. With the teams splitting home stands, the Rays won a decisive Game 5. I feel good about that bet now, as historically, in the current 2-2-1 format, the team that takes Game 1 has won the series 72.4% of the time.
Any confidence in the Rays has to start with the fact that they have arguably the most complete team in the AL, while also having the likely AL MVP runner-up in their lineup. Junior is protected by Liam Hicks, who has been outstanding since his trade-deadline acquisition, producing a 130 wRC+. The Rays also get to roll out Yandy and Aranda, creating a very effective top 4. That core 4 is supplemented by a series of above-average platoon bats in Vilade (108 wRC+), Mesa Jr. (128 wRC+ and will likely see most RF at-bats this postseason), Jonny DeLuca (102 wRC+), and Richie Palacios (101 wRC+). Defensively, the Rays can field an athletic OF capable of above-average defense with Jonny DeLuca, Chandler Simpson (93 wRC+), and Mesa Jr. Infield defense will make the plays they need, with Taylor Walls playing his typical elite defense at SS. Passable defense will be played at 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.
The Rays can roll out a very capable top 3 in the rotation. Drew Rasmussen will make another start, either that being game 4 or game 5. Still, Freddy Peralta has been exceptional in his past 6 starts, yielding only 3 ER over his final 34 innings this year while seeing a return of his quality of stuff (fastball 101 stuff+, and 125 stuff+, with his changeup also seeing an uptick to being a usable pitch) and his ability to locate (104 location+ with the Mets vs 111 with the Rays). Nick Martinez has been great in 2026 at Yankee Stadium with a 2.25 ERA in 2 starts. Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour can start if needed; however, they will likely be used as 2-3-inning glue relievers, which should improve their stuff in those situations. Thankfully, the Rays did not use their bullpen in Game 1 and can rely on high-leverage relievers such as Tyler Wells, Garret Cleavinger, Kevin Kelly, and Cam Booser. All 4 of them have produced positive win-probability added and provide a stable bridge to Bryan Baker. Bryan Baker is a shutdown reliever who has been exceptional in high-leverage spots this year, posting a 2.19 FIP there.
This is a deep team; there are still flaws, but Kevin Cash’s deployment has covered them. The team is arguably the most complete outside the Dodgers and will win the ALDS in 5 games.
Sandy (@SandyAndTheRays): A Trop Full Of Fans
ALDS Game 1 is in the books, and the Rays not only came away with the win, but Rays fans made their presence felt at the Trop. One of the big topics leading into the ALDS was what the Rays fan vs. Yankees fan turnout would look like at the Trop, and ultimately, what it did look like.
The reality is that Yankees fans were going to be there. It’s Tampa Bay/Florida, after all. Plenty of New Yorkers relocate there, and the Yankees have one of their Minor League affiliates in Tampa. But it wasn’t exactly what Cam Schlittler had envisioned when he suggested the Yankees would be “kind of playing at home.”
I wasn’t there in person, but what I saw on TV was marvelous and gave me some serious FOMO — and, honestly, made me pretty proud to be a Rays fan. I especially loved the rally towels, with fans waving them in unison throughout the stadium. The broadcast seemed to keep finding shots of them as it went to commercial, and the sea of rally towels made for such a cool visual. There were loud cheers when the Rays scored their lone run or got a hit, and plenty of energy around Drew Rasmussen’s electric eight-inning outing, particularly when he was fired up after a big final out. At the same time, there were audible cheers when the Yankees won challenges, and there were boos when the Yankees would check the Rays runner at first base.
More than 40,000 strong filled the Trop, and it was an incredible sight to see, especially with the 300 level open. Rasmussen summed it up nicely after the game: “This place is as loud as any place is when it’s filled up.” Here’s hoping we get plenty more of that atmosphere at the Trop as this series continues — and that Rays fans continue to outnumber and outcheer the Yankees fans.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
